Arda Kardzhali
vs
Septemvri Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arda Kardzhali
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Arda Kardzhali is the favourite, not a value bet.
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
| Probability | Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.0% | 21.7% | 18.3% |
| Market | 57.3% | 24.9% | 17.7% |
| Final | 58.0% | 24.1% | 17.9% |
| Edge | +0.7% | -0.8% | +0.1% |
Why Arda Kardzhali
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.5% per unit staked (our 58.0% × 1.63 − 1).
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia match preview
Arda Kardzhali faces Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria First League with a probability of 55% for a home victory, while Septemvri Sofia has a 23% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 66%.
In terms of recent form, Arda Kardzhali has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Septemvri Sofia has one win, one draw, and three losses. The expected goals for Arda Kardzhali stand at 2.14, compared to 1.34 for Septemvri Sofia. The head-to-head record from the last three encounters shows one win for each team and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia attack and defence ratings
Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arda Kardzhali | 58.0% | 1.72 | +0.7% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arda Kardzhali | 58.0% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Septemvri Sofia | 17.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arda Kardzhali win | 38.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 40.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia stats
Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia recent form
| Arda Kardzhali |
DLDLLW |
| Septemvri Sofia |
LLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia season so far
Arda Kardzhali record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Septemvri Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Septemvri Sofia | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Septemvri Sofia | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Arda Kardzhali | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.3%, draw 24.9%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 3.68 | 5.27 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.68 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 3.83 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .