Cherno More Varna
vs
Septemvri Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cherno More Varna
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
| Probability | Cherno More Varna | Draw | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.4% | 25.7% | 32.0% |
| Market | 54.4% | 26.2% | 19.4% |
| Final | 51.4% | 26.1% | 22.5% |
| Edge | -12.0% | -0.6% | +12.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia match preview
Cherno More Varna hosts Septemvri Sofia in a Bulgaria First League match on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Cherno More Varna has a 51% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 26% and Septemvri Sofia at 23%. The expected goals for Cherno More Varna are 1.68, compared to 1.44 for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance.
Recent form shows Cherno More Varna with a record of L-D-D-L-L-W, while Septemvri Sofia has L-L-L-L-D-W. In their last two encounters, Cherno More Varna has secured 1 win and 1 draw against Septemvri Sofia, who has yet to win in this matchup. Our model indicates a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia attack and defence ratings
Cherno More Varna
Septemvri Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cherno More Varna | 51.4% | 1.95 | -12.0% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.6% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cherno More Varna | 51.4% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Septemvri Sofia | 22.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cherno More Varna win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 57.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia stats
Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia recent form
| Cherno More Varna |
LDDLLW |
| Septemvri Sofia |
LLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia season so far
Cherno More Varna record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Septemvri Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Septemvri Sofia | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Cherno More Varna | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.4%, draw 26.2%, away 19.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.52 | 4.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.52 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .