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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 11

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia

0 – 2 Full time

24′Gasper Trdin
27′Mehdi Moubarik
38′Mustapha SangaréÁlex Centelles
57′Mohamed Achi BouaklineIvan·Tasev
60′L. Squadrone
60′Wabo Oliver KamdemAldair
60′Gasper TrdinKristian Dimitrov
63′Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno
71′Idris·BounaasBerk Beyhan
71′Vasil PanayotovPadilla Jorge
78′celso sidneyMiguel barandas
78′Georgi ventsislavovNestorly lumbu
81′Padilla Jorge
84′Ertan Tombak
87′Reinaldo Nascimento SatornoJuan Perea
87′bala evertonSteven Stoyanchov

Ticha Stadium, VarnaReferee: Radoslav Gidzhenov

Cherno More Varna 17%
Draw 26%
Levski Sofia 57%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 3
34 Possession % 66
2 Corners 4

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCherno More VarnaDrawLevski Sofia
Model17.4%25.1%57.4%
Market16.9%26.4%56.7%
Final17.0%26.1%56.9%
Edge+0.1%-0.3%+0.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Levski Sofia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cherno More Va ↓ / Levski Sofia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 11% 7% 1 12% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia expected goals

Cherno More Varna 0.89
Levski Sofia 1.79

Total expected goals: 2.69

Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings

Cherno More Varna

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Levski Sofia

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia: result vs prediction

Cherno More Varna 0 – 2 Levski Sofia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Levski Sofia 56.9% 1.76 +0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.4% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.5% 1.98 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 83.0% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.5% 2.35 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cherno More Varna17.0%
Draw26.1%
Levski Sofia56.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%
Both teams to scoreYes50.5%
No49.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)43.1%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)83.0%
Handicap -1Levski Sofia win33.6%
Push (exactly one goal)23.9%
Loss42.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.0%
0-111.1%
0-210.9%

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia stats

Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia recent form

newest first
Cherno More Varna DDLLWL
Levski Sofia LDWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cherno More Varna record

  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Levski Sofia record

  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Cherno More Varna wins 3Draws 3Levski Sofia wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21Levski SofiaCherno More VarnaBulgaria First League2-1
2025-10-19Cherno More VarnaLevski SofiaBulgaria First League1-3
2025-05-26Cherno More VarnaLevski SofiaFirst League0-0
2025-05-10Levski SofiaCherno More VarnaFirst League2-0
2025-04-13Levski SofiaCherno More VarnaFirst League1-2
2025-02-26Cherno More VarnaLevski SofiaCup1-0
2024-11-03Cherno More VarnaLevski SofiaFirst League2-1
2024-07-03Cherno More VarnaLevski SofiaFriendlies Clubs0-0
2024-05-12Levski SofiaCherno More VarnaFirst League0-0
2024-04-13Cherno More VarnaLevski SofiaFirst League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.9%, draw 26.4%, away 56.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.62 3.52 1.62
Bet365 5.50 3.50 1.67
BetVictor 5.75 3.60 1.65
Betano 5.50 3.45 1.65
Betfair 5.00 3.50 1.60
Dafabet 5.40 3.55 1.66
Marathonbet 5.65 3.52 1.60
Pinnacle 5.67 3.60 1.66
SBO 4.75 3.23 1.60
William Hill 5.00 3.30 1.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.50 ▼ -0.03
X 3.51 ▼ -0.19
2 1.64 ▲ +0.03

15 snapshots recorded, from .