Cherno More Varna
vs
Levski Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Levski Sofia
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
| Probability | Cherno More Varna | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.5% | 25.2% | 57.3% |
| Market | 18.0% | 26.1% | 56.0% |
| Final | 17.8% | 25.8% | 56.3% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -0.9% | +1.4% |
Why Levski Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia match preview
In the upcoming match between Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Levski Sofia, with a 58% likelihood of victory compared to Cherno More Varna's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Both teams have a 50% chance of scoring, while the expected goals for Cherno More Varna stand at 0.90 and for Levski Sofia at 1.79.
Recent form shows Cherno More Varna with two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Levski Sofia has three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Levski Sofia has secured two victories over Cherno More Varna, further emphasizing their current form and dominance in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings
Cherno More Varna
Levski Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levski Sofia | 56.3% | 1.78 | +1.4% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cherno More Varna | 17.8% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Levski Sofia | 56.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% |
| No | 49.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | |
| 0-2 | 10.9% |
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia stats
Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia recent form
| Cherno More Varna |
DDLLWL |
| Levski Sofia |
LDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia season so far
Cherno More Varna record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Levski Sofia record
- They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Levski Sofia | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Cherno More Varna | Levski Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.0%, draw 26.1%, away 56.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.52 | 3.52 | 1.63 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 3.60 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 5.10 | 3.45 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| Dafabet | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| Marathonbet | 5.55 | 3.52 | 1.61 |
| Pinnacle | 5.18 | 3.57 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 3.25 | 1.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .