Botev Vratsa
vs
Spartak Varna
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botev Vratsa
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
| Probability | Botev Vratsa | Draw | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.7% | 29.4% | 31.0% |
| Market | 47.4% | 29.1% | 23.6% |
| Final | 45.4% | 29.1% | 25.4% |
| Edge | -7.7% | +0.3% | +7.4% |
Why Botev Vratsa
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna match preview
Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna are set to clash in the Bulgaria First League on October 10, 2026. The model probabilities suggest a competitive match, with Botev Vratsa holding a 40% chance of victory compared to Spartak Varna's 31%, and a 29% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals indicate a slight edge for Botev Vratsa at 1.35, while Spartak Varna is projected at 1.16.
In terms of recent form, Botev Vratsa has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Spartak Varna has struggled, with no wins in their last six outings. Historically, Botev Vratsa has performed well against Spartak Varna, winning two of their last three encounters, with one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna attack and defence ratings
Botev Vratsa
Spartak Varna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Vratsa | 45.4% | 2.20 | -7.7% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Vratsa | 45.4% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Spartak Varna | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Vratsa win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 60.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna stats
Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna recent form
| Botev Vratsa |
DDWLWL |
| Spartak Varna |
LDDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna season so far
Botev Vratsa record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Spartak Varna record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Botev Vratsa | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Botev Vratsa | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Spartak Varna | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-01 | Spartak Varna | Botev Vratsa | First League | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-13 | Botev Vratsa | Spartak Varna | First League | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-13 | Botev Vratsa | Spartak Varna | First League | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-25 | Spartak Varna | Botev Vratsa | First League | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-15 | Botev Vratsa | Spartak Varna | First League | 1-0 |
| 2022-06-22 | Botev Vratsa | Spartak Varna | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 29.1%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.12 | 4.07 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.15 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.35 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.12 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.16 | 4.19 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .