Dunav Ruse
vs
Spartak Varna
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dunav Ruse
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna
| Probability | Dunav Ruse | Draw | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.9% | 28.4% | 33.8% |
| Market | 37.7% | 29.7% | 32.6% |
| Final | 37.7% | 29.4% | 32.9% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -1.3% | +1.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna match preview
Dunav Ruse faces Spartak Varna in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a closely contested game. Dunav Ruse has a 38% chance of winning, while Spartak Varna is at 33%, with a 29% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest a slight edge for Dunav Ruse at 1.38 compared to Spartak Varna's 1.29. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Dunav Ruse, which aligns with the model's prediction of a 50% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Dunav Ruse with a record of W-D-L-L-D-L, while Spartak Varna has W-L-D-D-D-L. This context adds to the intrigue of the fixture as both teams look to improve their standings. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna attack and defence ratings
Dunav Ruse
Spartak Varna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunav Ruse | 37.7% | 2.65 | +0.1% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunav Ruse | 37.7% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Spartak Varna | 32.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunav Ruse win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 62.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna stats
Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna recent form
| Dunav Ruse |
WDLLDL |
| Spartak Varna |
WLDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna season so far
Dunav Ruse record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Spartak Varna record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.9%, draw 29.6%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.08 | 3.03 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .