Septemvri Sofia
vs
Dunav Ruse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Septemvri Sofia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
| Probability | Septemvri Sofia | Draw | Dunav Ruse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 27.6% | 32.3% |
| Market | 40.8% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| Final | 40.7% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| Edge | -0.7% | -2.8% | +3.6% |
Why Septemvri Sofia
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse match preview
Septemvri Sofia faces Dunav Ruse in the Bulgaria First League with a kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model gives Septemvri Sofia a 41% chance of winning, while both a draw and a Dunav Ruse victory are at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Septemvri Sofia, with a probability of 9%.
In terms of offensive output, expected goals are 1.48 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.31 for Dunav Ruse. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 53%, and both teams scoring is projected at 58%. Recent form shows Septemvri Sofia with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Dunav Ruse has one win, two draws, and two losses in the same period.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse attack and defence ratings
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Septemvri Sofia | 40.7% | 2.46 | -0.7% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Septemvri Sofia | 40.7% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Dunav Ruse | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Septemvri Sofia win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse stats
Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse recent form
| Septemvri Sofia |
LLLDWW |
| Dunav Ruse |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse season so far
Septemvri Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Dunav Ruse record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 30.4%, away 28.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.00 | 3.18 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.04 | 3.32 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.80 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .