Ludogorets
vs
Arda Kardzhali
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ludogorets
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
| Probability | Ludogorets | Draw | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.2% | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| Market | 55.9% | 25.9% | 18.2% |
| Final | 54.5% | 25.9% | 19.6% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +0.2% | +5.5% |
Why Ludogorets
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali match preview
Ludogorets faces Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria First League, with kickoff scheduled for October 12, 2026. The model gives Ludogorets a 56% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 25% and Arda Kardzhali at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Ludogorets, with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Ludogorets has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches, while Arda Kardzhali has two wins, one draw, and three losses in the same span. Notably, in their last two head-to-head encounters, Arda Kardzhali has emerged victorious twice, with Ludogorets yet to secure a win against them.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali attack and defence ratings
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ludogorets | 54.5% | 1.84 | -5.7% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ludogorets | 54.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Arda Kardzhali | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ludogorets win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 49.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali stats
Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali recent form
| Ludogorets |
WWDDWW |
| Arda Kardzhali |
DLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali season so far
Ludogorets record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arda Kardzhali record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Arda Kardzhali | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Ludogorets | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 25.9%, away 18.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 3.52 | 5.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.65 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.52 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.47 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .