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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 11

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali

5 – 0 Full time

18′Caio Vidal Rocha
21′Hossam Abdelmaguid
30′Georgi Nikolaev Nikolov
41′Caio Vidal Rocha
44′Bernard Tekpetey
45′Vyacheslav Velev
45′Bernard Tekpetey
46′petar stanicAguibou Camara
46′Deroy DuarteAmir Hadžiahmetović
55′Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz
56′Bernard TekpeteyErick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo
57′Antonio VutovPreslav·Bachev
63′Stanislav IvanovBirsent Karagaren
63′Svetoslav KovachevAtanas Kabov
68′Caio Vidal RochaNathan Fernandes
68′Viktor Lyubenov
78′Viktor LyubenovDerick Fernando da Silva
79′Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza CruzIvajlo Čočev
86′Ivan Zhelizko

Huvepharma Arena, RazgradReferee: Kristiyan Kolev

Ludogorets 60%
Draw 24%
Arda Kardzhali 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 4
6 Shots on target 3
70 Possession % 30
7 Corners 2

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLudogoretsDrawArda Kardzhali
Model49.7%26.2%24.1%
Market62.9%23.1%14.0%
Final59.6%23.9%16.5%
Edge-3.3%+0.8%+2.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Ludogorets

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.13.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ludogorets ↓ / Arda Kardzhali → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 12% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali expected goals

Ludogorets 1.71
Arda Kardzhali 1.13

Total expected goals: 2.84

Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali attack and defence ratings

Ludogorets

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Arda Kardzhali

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali: result vs prediction

Ludogorets 5 – 0 Arda Kardzhali

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ludogorets 59.6% 1.68 -3.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.0% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.6% 1.77 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.5% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.3% 1.99 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ludogorets59.6%
Draw23.9%
Arda Kardzhali16.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%
Both teams to scoreYes56.6%
No43.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.5%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)40.4%
Handicap -1Ludogorets win27.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss50.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.4%
2-19.6%
1-08.8%

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali stats

Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali recent form

newest first
Ludogorets WWDDWW
Arda Kardzhali DLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ludogorets record

  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Arda Kardzhali record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Ludogorets wins 4Draws 2Arda Kardzhali wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-15Arda KardzhaliLudogoretsBulgaria First League1-0
2025-11-09LudogoretsArda KardzhaliBulgaria First League2-3
2025-05-26LudogoretsArda KardzhaliFirst League2-2
2025-05-09Arda KardzhaliLudogoretsFirst League1-1
2024-12-04Arda KardzhaliLudogoretsFirst League0-4
2024-08-03LudogoretsArda KardzhaliFirst League5-1
2024-04-15LudogoretsArda KardzhaliFirst League2-0
2023-10-22Arda KardzhaliLudogoretsFirst League0-0
2023-04-14Arda KardzhaliLudogoretsFirst League1-2
2022-09-18LudogoretsArda KardzhaliFirst League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.9%, draw 23.1%, away 14.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.48 3.90 6.80
Bet365 1.48 4.20 7.00
BetVictor 1.45 4.40 7.00
Betano 1.47 4.00 6.50
Betfair 1.40 4.00 6.50
Dafabet 1.48 4.20 6.40
Marathonbet 1.47 3.90 6.70
Pinnacle 1.48 4.20 6.99
SBO 1.41 3.62 5.51
William Hill 1.44 3.80 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.47 ▼ -0.08
X 4.00 ▲ +0.20
2 6.60 ▲ +0.96

18 snapshots recorded, from .