Arda Kardzhali
vs
Levski Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Levski Sofia
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
| Probability | Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.0% | 26.1% | 52.9% |
| Market | 19.7% | 27.8% | 52.5% |
| Final | 20.0% | 27.4% | 52.6% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -1.6% | +0.3% |
Why Levski Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia match preview
In the upcoming match between Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia, the probabilities indicate a strong inclination towards Levski Sofia, who have a 53% chance of winning, compared to Arda Kardzhali's 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Arda Kardzhali recording one win in their last six matches, while Levski Sofia has secured three wins in the same period.
The expected goals for the match suggest Arda Kardzhali will score around 1.01, while Levski Sofia is forecasted to net approximately 1.72. The model also indicates a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. Historically, Levski Sofia has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings
Arda Kardzhali
Levski Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levski Sofia | 52.6% | 1.90 | +0.3% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arda Kardzhali | 20.0% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Levski Sofia | 52.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% |
| No | 46.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 9.7% |
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia stats
Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia recent form
| Arda Kardzhali |
LDLLWW |
| Levski Sofia |
DWLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia season so far
Arda Kardzhali record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levski Sofia record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Levski Sofia | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Arda Kardzhali | Levski Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.7%, draw 27.8%, away 52.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.61 | 3.34 | 1.78 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.30 | 1.67 |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 3.34 | 1.76 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .