Garuda Lions
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UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Plzen vs Levski Sofia

1 – 2 Full time

20′Mazire Soula
44′Francisco Everton Mota de Castro
60′Mazire SoulaArmstrong Oko-Flex
60′Denis VišinskýSalim Fago Lawal
60′Patrik HrošovskýStefan Pirgic
62′Christopher Kabongo
65′Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno
74′Francisco Everton Mota de CastroAkram Bouras
74′tobias paliscakAlexandr Sojka
74′Tomáš LadraBaboucarr Faal
77′Christopher KabongoMatěj Vydra
82′Reinaldo Nascimento SatornoJuan Esteban Perea Sanchez
82′Mehdi MoubarikÁlex Centelles
87′Stefan Pirgic

Doosan Arena, PilsnerReferee: Alejandro Hernandez

Plzen 49%
Draw 25%
Levski Sofia 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 6
2 Shots on target 3
63 Possession % 37
4 Corners 1
9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 1
397 Accurate passes 404

Plzen vs Levski Sofia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Plzen vs Levski Sofia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPlzenDrawLevski Sofia
Model30.6%28.0%41.4%
Market54.9%24.3%20.8%
Final48.8%25.3%25.9%
Edge-6.1%+0.9%+5.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Plzen ↓ / Levski Sofia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Plzen and Levski Sofia expected goals

Plzen 1.23
Levski Sofia 1.47

Total expected goals: 2.69

Plzen and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings

Plzen

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Levski Sofia

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.62 -38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia: result vs prediction

Plzen 1 – 2 Levski Sofia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Plzen vs Levski Sofia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Plzen 48.8% 2.05 -6.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.6% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.7% 1.79 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.6% 1.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Plzen48.8%
Draw25.3%
Levski Sofia25.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
Both teams to scoreYes55.7%
No44.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.1%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)51.2%
Handicap -1Plzen win13.2%
Push (exactly one goal)17.1%
Loss69.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-28.9%
0-18.7%

Plzen vs Levski Sofia stats

Plzen and Levski Sofia recent form

newest first
Plzen WLWLLL
Levski Sofia DWLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 24.3%, away 20.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.77 4.03 4.56
Bet365 1.70 3.90 4.75
BetVictor 1.70 3.80 4.60
Betano 1.75 4.05 4.90
Betfair 1.70 3.90 4.75
Dafabet 1.75 3.95 4.60
Marathonbet 1.75 3.98 4.50
Pinnacle 1.72 4.05 4.78
SBO 1.80 3.24 3.54
William Hill 1.73 3.75 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.74 ▲ +0.04
X 3.92 ▼ -0.08
2 4.60 —

12 snapshots recorded, from .