Plzen
vs
Levski Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Levski Sofia
0 β 1 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
Plzen vs Levski Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plzen vs Levski Sofia
| Probability | Plzen | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.7% | 27.9% | 44.4% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 27.7% | 27.9% | 44.4% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Levski Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Plzen vs Levski Sofia match preview
Plzen faces Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League with both teams displaying varied recent form. Plzen has recorded three losses, one draw, and two additional draws in their last six matches, while Levski Sofia has two wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome show Plzen at 28%, a draw at 28%, and Levski Sofia leading at 44%.
The expected goals for this matchup indicate Plzen at 1.15 and Levski Sofia at 1.51, suggesting a potentially competitive game. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plzen and Levski Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Plzen and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings
Plzen
Levski Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Plzen vs Levski Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levski Sofia | 44.4% | 2.25 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.3% | 1.38 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 27.7% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Levski Sofia | 44.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Plzen vs Levski Sofia stats
Plzen and Levski Sofia recent form
| Plzen |
LLLDWD |
| Levski Sofia |
LDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.