Czech Liga · 2026-10-18T16:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 11

FK Jablonec vs Plzen

2 – 3 Full time

14′			Eduard Sobol
15′			Sampson Dweh
25′			Christopher Kabongo
34′			Merchas Doski
35′			Filip Prebsl
45′			Eduard SobolSaidou Alioum Moubarak
53′			Amar Memić
57′			Dusan Pavlovic
62′			Adam GabrielCheick Souare
62′			Merchas Doskitobias paliscak
65′			Saidou Alioum Moubarak
68′			Christopher KabongoBaboucarr Faal
68′			Amar MemićSalim Fago Lawal
71′			Vakhtang TChanturishviliDominik Holly
71′			Richard SedláčekNelson Okeke
71′			Antonín RůsekJan Chramosta
75′			Denis VišinskýStefan Pirgic
77′			Baboucarr Faal
83′			Garang Mawien KuolHugo Ahl
84′			Baboucarr Faal

Stadion Střelnice, JablonecReferee: Jan Machalek

FK Jablonec

38%

Draw

27%

Plzen

35%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

23	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	3
60	Possession %	40
8	Corners	3
14	Fouls	14
1	Offsides	3
0	Saves	8
425	Accurate passes	221

FK Jablonec vs Plzen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Jablonec vs Plzen

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FK Jablonec	Draw	Plzen
Model	45.5%	26.3%	28.1%
Market	35.4%	27.0%	37.7%
Final	37.9%	26.8%	35.3%
Edge	+2.5%	-0.2%	-2.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FK Jablonec

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.27.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices FK Jablonec below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

80%

3+ goals

56%

No goals

FK Jablonec and Plzen expected goals

FK Jablonec

1.66

Plzen

1.27

Total expected goals: 2.94

FK Jablonec and Plzen attack and defence ratings

FK Jablonec

Attack

0.95 -5%

Defence

0.87 -13%

Plzen

Attack

1.19 +19%

Defence

1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Jablonec vs Plzen: result vs prediction

FK Jablonec 2 – 3 Plzen

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Czech Liga

Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové — team news & stats · 2026-10-17
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice · 2026-10-17
Pardubice vs Zlin — team news & stats · 2026-10-17
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec — team news & stats · 2026-10-17
Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno — match page · 2026-10-18
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha · 2026-10-18
Artis vs Bohemians 1905 · 2026-11-04

Before and after this match

FK Jablonec, previous: Freiburg – FK Jablonec, 2026-10-15
FK Jablonec, next: FK Jablonec vs Brighton: odds and pick
Plzen, previous: Ferencvarosi TC v Plzen analysis
Plzen, next: Plzen vs Levski Sofia: odds and pick

FK Jablonec vs Plzen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FK Jablonec	37.9%	2.64	+2.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56.2%	1.78	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	59.4%	1.68	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.2%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	54.5%	1.83	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FK Jablonec	37.9%
	Draw	26.8%
	Plzen	35.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56.2%
	Under 2.5	43.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	59.4%
	No	40.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	64.7%
	12 (either side)	73.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	62.1%
Handicap -1	FK Jablonec win	24.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.0%
	Loss	54.5%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.4%
	2-1	9.4%
	1-0	7.7%

FK Jablonec vs Plzen stats

FK Jablonec and Plzen recent form

newest first

FK Jablonec	LWDLWL
Plzen	LWLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Jablonec and Plzen going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Jablonec record

They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Plzen record

They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

FK Jablonec vs Plzen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0FK Jablonec wins 3Draws 7Plzen wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-17	Plzen	FK Jablonec	Czech Liga	5-0
2025-11-23	FK Jablonec	Plzen	Czech Liga	3-3
2025-07-26	Plzen	FK Jablonec	Czech Liga	1-1
2025-05-24	Plzen	FK Jablonec	Czech Liga	4-1
2024-12-01	Plzen	FK Jablonec	Czech Liga	3-2
2024-08-03	FK Jablonec	Plzen	Czech Liga	0-0
2024-04-02	FK Jablonec	Plzen	Cup	0-3
2024-03-17	FK Jablonec	Plzen	Czech Liga	1-2
2023-10-08	Plzen	FK Jablonec	Czech Liga	3-2
2023-04-08	Plzen	FK Jablonec	Czech Liga	3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Jablonec vs Plzen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.3%, draw 26.8%, away 37.9%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.61	3.44	2.43
Bet365	2.60	3.40	2.45
BetVictor	2.60	3.30	2.45
Betano	2.70	3.50	2.37
Betfair	2.75	3.50	2.40
Dafabet	2.80	3.50	2.44
Marathonbet	2.61	3.44	2.43
Pinnacle	2.67	3.61	2.52
SBO	2.61	3.02	2.18
William Hill	2.62	3.30	2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.61 ▼ -0.09

X 3.42 ▼ -0.08

2 2.45 ▲ +0.07

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-12T08:10:03Z.