FK Jablonec
vs
Plzen
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Jablonec
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
FK Jablonec vs Plzen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Jablonec vs Plzen
| Probability | FK Jablonec | Draw | Plzen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.4% | 26.4% | 28.2% |
| Market | 35.2% | 26.9% | 37.9% |
| Final | 37.8% | 26.8% | 35.5% |
| Edge | +10.2% | -0.6% | -9.7% |
Why FK Jablonec
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FK Jablonec below the model: +10.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FK Jablonec vs Plzen match preview
FK Jablonec faces Plzen in a Czech Liga match with both teams showing mixed recent form. Jablonec's last six matches include two wins and four losses, while Plzen has one win, four losses, and one draw in their recent outings. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Jablonec at 36% to win, Plzen at 37%, and a draw at 27%.
Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Plzen, with a 7% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Jablonec stand at 1.65, compared to Plzen's 1.27. Additionally, there is a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score in this encounter. The head-to-head record shows Jablonec with no wins, two draws, and one loss against Plzen in their last three meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Jablonec and Plzen expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
FK Jablonec and Plzen attack and defence ratings
FK Jablonec
Plzen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Jablonec vs Plzen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Jablonec | 37.8% | 2.65 | +10.2% | 2.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Jablonec | 37.8% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Plzen | 35.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Jablonec win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 7.7% |
FK Jablonec vs Plzen stats
FK Jablonec and Plzen recent form
| FK Jablonec |
LWDLWL |
| Plzen |
LWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Jablonec and Plzen season so far
FK Jablonec record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Plzen record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
FK Jablonec vs Plzen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Plzen | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga | 5-0 |
| 2025-11-23 | FK Jablonec | Plzen | Czech Liga | 3-3 |
| 2025-07-26 | Plzen | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Plzen | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga | 4-1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Plzen | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga | 3-2 |
| 2024-08-03 | FK Jablonec | Plzen | Czech Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-02 | FK Jablonec | Plzen | Cup | 0-3 |
| 2024-03-17 | FK Jablonec | Plzen | Czech Liga | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | Plzen | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga | 3-2 |
| 2023-04-08 | Plzen | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FK Jablonec vs Plzen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.1%, draw 26.8%, away 38.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 3.44 | 2.43 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.44 |
| Marathonbet | 2.61 | 3.44 | 2.43 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.59 | 2.48 |
| SBO | 2.61 | 3.02 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .