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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec

3 – 2 Full time

14′Nemanja Tekijaški
15′V. Grifo
28′A. Rusek
53′D. Pavlovic
59′C. GunterJ. Makengo
59′L. HolerI. Matanovic
63′Nelson Okeke
65′M. Eggestein
66′N. OkekeS. Nebyla
66′S. AlioumG. Kuol
71′M. RosenfelderP. Lienhart
71′C. IrieK. Goto
72′Patrick Osterhage
76′R. SedlacekD. Soucek
76′A. RusekD. Holly
77′Dominik Hollý
84′L. KublerP. Treu
84′M. PolidarJ. Chramosta
90′G. Kuol

Europa-Park Stadion, FreiburgReferee: E. Malcevs

Freiburg 73%
Draw 17%
FK Jablonec 10%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

23 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 2
60 Possession % 40
5 Corners 1
19 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2
0 Saves 8
518 Accurate passes 302

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs FK Jablonec

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFreiburgDrawFK Jablonec
Model52.8%27.3%20.0%
Market79.8%13.7%6.5%
Final73.0%17.1%9.9%
Edge-6.8%+3.4%+3.4%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Freiburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Freiburg ↓ / FK Jablonec → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 12% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Freiburg and FK Jablonec expected goals

Freiburg 1.61
FK Jablonec 0.91

Total expected goals: 2.52

Freiburg and FK Jablonec attack and defence ratings

Freiburg

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.89 -11%

FK Jablonec

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec: result vs prediction

Freiburg 3 – 2 FK Jablonec

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Freiburg 73.0% 1.37 -6.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.0% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score No 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 90.1% 1.11 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.3% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Freiburg73.0%
Draw17.1%
FK Jablonec9.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%
Both teams to scoreYes48.9%
No51.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)90.1%
12 (either side)82.9%
X2 (draw or away)27.0%
Handicap -1Freiburg win28.8%
Push (exactly one goal)23.9%
Loss47.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
1-011.8%
2-010.5%

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec stats

Freiburg and FK Jablonec recent form

newest first
Freiburg WDWWWW
FK Jablonec WDLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Freiburg and FK Jablonec going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Jablonec record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 79.8%, draw 13.7%, away 6.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.17 7.60 19.00
Bet365 1.17 6.50 15.00
BetVictor 1.15 7.00 15.00
Betano 1.22 7.30 14.50
Betfair 1.17 6.50 14.00
Dafabet 1.20 7.40 14.00
Marathonbet 1.16 6.65 16.75
Pinnacle 1.21 7.14 13.30
SBO 1.16 6.47 11.56
William Hill 1.20 6.00 13.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.17 ▼ -0.13
X 6.83 ▲ +1.62
2 14.25 ▲ +5.38

14 snapshots recorded, from .