Freiburg
vs
FK Jablonec
Garuda Lions Prediction: Freiburg
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
| Probability | Freiburg | Draw | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 24.6% | 19.1% |
| Market | 71.6% | 17.9% | 10.5% |
| Final | 67.8% | 19.6% | 12.6% |
| Edge | -15.2% | +6.7% | +8.6% |
Why Freiburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec match preview
Freiburg enters this match with a strong recent form, having recorded five wins and a draw in their last six games. Their expected goals stand at 1.87, indicating a solid attacking performance, while they are favored to win with a probability of 56%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood, and there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In contrast, FK Jablonec has struggled recently, with only one win in their last six matches, alongside two draws and three losses. Their expected goals are significantly lower at 1.01, reflecting their challenges in offense. The probability of a draw is 25%, and Jablonec has a 19% chance of winning this encounter. Both teams to score is also projected at 55%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Freiburg and FK Jablonec expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Freiburg and FK Jablonec attack and defence ratings
Freiburg
FK Jablonec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 67.8% | 1.47 | -15.2% | 1.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% | 1.14 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.29 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 67.8% |
| Draw | 19.6% | |
| FK Jablonec | 12.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% |
| No | 45.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec stats
Freiburg and FK Jablonec recent form
| Freiburg |
DWWWWW |
| FK Jablonec |
DLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Freiburg and FK Jablonec season so far
FK Jablonec record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 71.6%, draw 17.9%, away 10.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 5.56 | 10.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.25 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.31 | 5.80 | 9.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 5.15 | 9.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.01 | 7.90 |
| SBO | 1.31 | 4.57 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .