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Czech Liga · Full time ·Matchday 10

Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec

0 – 1 Full time

43′A. Dante
46′A. SoliuL. Ezeh
65′D. VasulinT. Vachousek
65′P. CavosS. Langer
68′S. Langer
68′D. Holly
70′D. HollyA. Rusek
70′G. KuolS. Alioum
78′A. VanicekM. Rymarenko
84′S. NebylaN. Okeke
85′A. Rusek
87′J. ZmrhalF. Vedral
90′L. JawoF. Novak
90′V. ChanturishviliD. Soucek

Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska, BrnoReferee: D. Vokoun

Zbrojovka Brno 37%
Draw 28%
FK Jablonec 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 15
3 Shots on target 6
49 Possession % 51
6 Corners 6
15 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 2
5 Saves 3
343 Accurate passes 348

Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityZbrojovka BrnoDrawFK Jablonec
Model36.8%31.2%32.0%
Market37.4%27.4%35.2%
Final37.2%28.3%34.4%
Edge-0.2%+1.0%-0.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Zbrojovka Brno

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Zbrojovka Brno ↓ / FK Jablonec → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 10% 1 11% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 12%

Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec expected goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1.18
FK Jablonec 1.09

Total expected goals: 2.27

Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec attack and defence ratings

Zbrojovka Brno

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.95 -5%

FK Jablonec

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec: result vs prediction

Zbrojovka Brno 0 – 1 FK Jablonec

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Czech Liga

Before and after this match

Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Zbrojovka Brno 37.2% 2.68 -0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.4% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score No 52.7% 1.90 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.7% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.2% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Zbrojovka Brno37.2%
Draw28.3%
FK Jablonec34.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.6%
Under 2.560.4%
Both teams to scoreYes47.3%
No52.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.6%
12 (either side)71.7%
X2 (draw or away)62.8%
Handicap -1Zbrojovka Brno win16.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss63.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-011.7%
1-010.9%

Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec stats

Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec recent form

newest first
Zbrojovka Brno LWLWWW
FK Jablonec DLWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec going into this match

league record before kick-off

Zbrojovka Brno record

  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

FK Jablonec record

  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

1Zbrojovka Brno wins 0Draws 5FK Jablonec wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-05-21FK JablonecZbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga1-0
2023-03-19Zbrojovka BrnoFK JablonecCzech Liga1-2
2022-10-02FK JablonecZbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga3-1
2021-03-14Zbrojovka BrnoFK JablonecCzech Liga1-2
2020-11-06FK JablonecZbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga0-1
2019-10-01FK JablonecZbrojovka BrnoCup3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 27.4%, away 35.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.44 3.38 2.63
Bet365 2.45 3.25 2.70
BetVictor 2.50 3.40 2.63
Betano 2.57 3.20 2.65
Betfair 2.45 3.40 2.63
Dafabet 2.55 3.40 2.75
Marathonbet 2.44 3.38 2.63
Pinnacle 2.58 3.41 2.72
SBO 2.45 3.08 2.52
William Hill 2.50 3.20 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.48 ▲ +0.02
X 3.38 —
2 2.63 —

13 snapshots recorded, from .