Sparta Praha
vs
Pardubice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sparta Praha
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
| Probability | Sparta Praha | Draw | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.6% | 22.6% | 17.8% |
| Market | 70.7% | 17.7% | 11.6% |
| Final | 67.9% | 18.9% | 13.2% |
| Edge | -11.1% | +5.0% | +6.2% |
Why Sparta Praha
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice match preview
Sparta Praha faces Pardubice in the Czech Liga, with model probabilities suggesting a strong likelihood of a home victory at 60%. The expected goals indicate Sparta Praha is projected to score 2.07, while Pardubice is expected to net 1.06. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Sparta Praha has recorded three wins in their last six matches, while Pardubice has two wins and two draws in their last six. Both teams show a decent chance of scoring, with 58% probability for both teams to find the net and a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team with one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sparta Praha and Pardubice expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Sparta Praha and Pardubice attack and defence ratings
Sparta Praha
Pardubice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 67.9% | 1.47 | -11.1% | 1.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 67.9% |
| Draw | 18.9% | |
| Pardubice | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Praha win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 40.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice stats
Sparta Praha and Pardubice recent form
| Sparta Praha |
WWWLLW |
| Pardubice |
WWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sparta Praha and Pardubice season so far
Sparta Praha record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Pardubice record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Sparta Praha | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 2-4 |
| 2025-08-03 | Pardubice | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.7%, draw 17.7%, away 11.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 5.25 | 7.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 5.20 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.35 | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 5.25 | 7.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 5.46 | 8.02 |
| SBO | 1.30 | 4.73 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .