Sparta Praha
vs
Lillestrom
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sparta Praha
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom
| Probability | Sparta Praha | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 20.4% | 17.6% |
| Market | 69.3% | 18.5% | 12.2% |
| Final | 67.4% | 19.0% | 13.6% |
| Edge | -7.3% | +1.9% | +5.4% |
Why Sparta Praha
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.22.
Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom match preview
Sparta Praha faces Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League with a favorable model prediction for the home side, holding a 62% probability of victory compared to Lillestrom's 18%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at a rate of 69%, while both teams scoring stands at 65%.
Recent form shows Sparta Praha with three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Lillestrom has secured four wins and two losses. The expected goals for Sparta Praha are 2.36, while Lillestrom is projected at 1.22, indicating a potential advantage for the home team in offensive output. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting model-only probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sparta Praha and Lillestrom expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
Sparta Praha and Lillestrom attack and defence ratings
Sparta Praha
Lillestrom
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
- Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan — match page
- Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad — match page
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia — team news & stats
- Torreense vs Sunderland — team news & stats
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page
Before and after this match
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 67.4% | 1.48 | -7.3% | 1.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Praha win | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 67.4% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| Lillestrom | 13.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% |
| No | 35.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Praha win | 40.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom stats
Sparta Praha and Lillestrom recent form
| Sparta Praha |
WWWLLW |
| Lillestrom |
WLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.3%, draw 18.5%, away 12.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.32 | 8.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.38 | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 5.25 | 8.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.11 | 7.72 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 4.43 | 6.38 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.80 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .