Baník Ostrava
vs
Sparta Praha
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sparta Praha
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha
| Probability | Baník Ostrava | Draw | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.5% | 24.1% | 56.4% |
| Market | 22.7% | 23.9% | 53.4% |
| Final | 21.9% | 24.0% | 54.1% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +0.2% | +3.0% |
Why Sparta Praha
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sparta Praha below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha match preview
Baník Ostrava faces a challenging matchup against Sparta Praha in the Czech Liga, with probabilities indicating a 21% chance of a Baník Ostrava win, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 55% likelihood of a Sparta Praha victory. The expected goals for Baník Ostrava stand at 1.04, while Sparta Praha is projected to score 2.03 goals. Recent form shows Baník Ostrava struggling with five games without a win, while Sparta Praha has experienced a mix of results, including four consecutive victories.
In their last two encounters, Baník Ostrava has not managed to secure a win against Sparta Praha, who has won both matchups. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha attack and defence ratings
Baník Ostrava
Sparta Praha
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 54.1% | 1.85 | +3.0% | 1.79 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Baník Ostrava | 21.9% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Sparta Praha | 54.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Praha win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.4% |
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha stats
Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha recent form
| Baník Ostrava |
LDLLLW |
| Sparta Praha |
DWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha season so far
Baník Ostrava record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Sparta Praha record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Sparta Praha | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga | 5-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 0-3 |
| 2025-05-18 | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-05 | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-02 | Sparta Praha | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga | 1-3 |
| 2024-05-14 | Sparta Praha | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-20 | Sparta Praha | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga | 4-3 |
| 2023-11-12 | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-11 | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 0-3 |
| 2022-11-19 | Baník Ostrava | Sparta Praha | Cup | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.6%, draw 23.8%, away 53.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.05 | 3.88 | 1.74 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.40 | 3.85 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.95 | 1.79 |
| Marathonbet | 4.05 | 3.88 | 1.72 |
| Pinnacle | 4.23 | 4.01 | 1.72 |
| SBO | 3.78 | 3.40 | 1.64 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .