Baník Ostrava
vs
Plzen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Plzen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Plzen is the favourite, not a value bet.
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen
| Probability | Baník Ostrava | Draw | Plzen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.0% | 26.7% | 38.3% |
| Market | 27.5% | 25.7% | 46.8% |
| Final | 29.4% | 26.0% | 44.7% |
| Edge | +1.9% | +0.3% | -2.1% |
Why Plzen
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (our 44.7% × 2.05 − 1).
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen match preview
Baník Ostrava faces Plzen in the Czech Liga, with kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities show Plzen favored to win at 40%, while Baník Ostrava has a 33% chance of victory and a 27% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Baník Ostrava is 1.41, compared to Plzen's 1.57, indicating a closely contested match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Recent form reveals Baník Ostrava struggling with a sequence of D-L-D-L-L-L, while Plzen has seen mixed results with L-W-L-W-L-L. In their last two encounters, Plzen has secured two wins against Baník Ostrava, who have yet to record a victory in this matchup. The model suggests a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Baník Ostrava and Plzen attack and defence ratings
Baník Ostrava
Plzen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 44.7% | 2.24 | -2.1% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Baník Ostrava | 29.4% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Plzen | 44.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Plzen win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 61.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen stats
Baník Ostrava and Plzen recent form
| Baník Ostrava |
DLDLLL |
| Plzen |
LLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Baník Ostrava and Plzen season so far
Baník Ostrava record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Plzen record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Baník Ostrava | Plzen | Czech Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Plzen | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.5%, draw 25.7%, away 46.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.40 | 3.64 | 1.96 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.65 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.01 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 3.64 | 1.94 |
| Pinnacle | 3.43 | 3.61 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.95 |