Mlada Boleslav
vs
Hradec Králové
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mlada Boleslav
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.80.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové
| Probability | Mlada Boleslav | Draw | Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.1% | 28.4% | 18.5% |
| Market | 41.7% | 27.2% | 31.1% |
| Final | 44.5% | 27.5% | 28.0% |
| Edge | +2.8% | +0.3% | -3.2% |
Why Mlada Boleslav
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mlada Boleslav below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (our 44.5% × 2.32 − 1).
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové match preview
Mlada Boleslav faces Hradec Králové in the Czech Liga, with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, Mlada Boleslav has a probability of 53% to win, while Hradec Králové stands at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 14%. The expected goals for Mlada Boleslav is 1.51, compared to Hradec Králové's 0.79.
In terms of recent form, Mlada Boleslav has recorded a draw, a win, two losses, and another win in their last six matches, while Hradec Králové has one win, two draws, and three losses in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows Mlada Boleslav with one win and one draw against Hradec Králové, who has yet to secure a victory in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové attack and defence ratings
Mlada Boleslav
Hradec Králové
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mlada Boleslav | 44.5% | 2.24 | +2.8% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mlada Boleslav | 44.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Hradec Králové | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mlada Boleslav win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | |
| 2-0 | 11.4% |
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové stats
Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové recent form
| Mlada Boleslav |
DWLLWL |
| Hradec Králové |
LDLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové season so far
Mlada Boleslav record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Hradec Králové record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Hradec Králové | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Mlada Boleslav | Hradec Králové | Czech Liga | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.7%, draw 27.2%, away 31.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.44 | 2.97 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 3.44 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.36 | 3.07 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |