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Czech Liga · ·Matchday 12

Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec

Garuda Lions Prediction: Hradec Králové

1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hradec Králové is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Hradec Králové

Malsovicka arena, Hradec Krlove

Hradec Králové 37%
Draw 30%
FK Jablonec 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Hradec Králové wins
37%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
87%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
44%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
11% of simulated outcomes

Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHradec KrálovéDrawFK Jablonec
Model30.7%32.4%36.9%
Market39.7%29.2%31.1%
Final37.5%30.0%32.6%
Edge-2.3%+0.8%+1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Hradec Králové

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.0% per unit staked (our 37.5% × 2.51 − 1).

Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec match preview

Hradec Králové faces FK Jablonec in a Czech Liga matchup with both teams showing mixed recent form. Hradec Králové has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Jablonec has two wins, three losses, and one draw in the same timeframe. The 1X2 probabilities from our model suggest a close contest, with Hradec Králové at 37%, a draw at 30%, and FK Jablonec at 33%.

The expected goals for the match are 1.00 for Hradec Králové and 1.12 for FK Jablonec. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with an 11% probability. Additionally, there is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% probability that both teams will score.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hradec Králové ↓ / FK Jablonec → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 12% 8% 1 11% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 36%
No goals 13%

Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec expected goals

Hradec Králové 1.00
FK Jablonec 1.12

Total expected goals: 2.12

Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec attack and defence ratings

Hradec Králové

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.02 +2%

FK Jablonec

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Czech Liga

Before and after this match

Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hradec Králové 37.5% 2.67 -2.3% 2.51
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.5% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score No 56.1% 1.78 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.0% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.3% 1.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hradec Králové37.5%
Draw30.0%
FK Jablonec32.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.5%
Under 2.564.5%
Both teams to scoreYes43.9%
No56.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.4%
12 (either side)70.0%
X2 (draw or away)62.5%
Handicap -1Hradec Králové win11.9%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss69.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.8%
0-013.4%
0-112.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec stats

Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec recent form

newest first
Hradec Králové DLLWDW
FK Jablonec DLLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec season so far

league record

Hradec Králové record

  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Jablonec record

  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Hradec Králové wins 3Draws 5FK Jablonec wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10FK JablonecHradec KrálovéCzech Liga1-1
2025-11-29Hradec KrálovéFK JablonecCzech Liga2-0
2025-08-02FK JablonecHradec KrálovéCzech Liga2-0
2025-03-12Hradec KrálovéFK JablonecCup1-2
2025-03-01Hradec KrálovéFK JablonecCzech Liga1-1
2024-09-28FK JablonecHradec KrálovéCzech Liga2-0
2024-03-02FK JablonecHradec KrálovéCzech Liga1-1
2023-09-24Hradec KrálovéFK JablonecCzech Liga1-0
2023-03-04Hradec KrálovéFK JablonecCzech Liga1-4
2022-09-11FK JablonecHradec KrálovéCzech Liga3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 29.4%, away 31.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.33 2.98 3.17
Bet365 2.35 3.25 2.75
BetVictor 2.38 3.30 2.90
Betano 2.37 3.20 2.90
Betfair 2.30 3.25 3.00
Dafabet 2.35 3.25 3.15
Marathonbet 2.31 2.98 3.14
Pinnacle 2.51 2.96 3.22
SBO 2.00 3.00 2.97
William Hill 2.40 3.10 2.80
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.35 ▲ +0.18
X 3.20 ▲ +0.26
2 3.00 ▼ -0.55

13 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Hradec Králové Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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