Sparta Praha
vs
Slovácko
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sparta Praha
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sparta Praha is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sparta Praha vs Slovácko
| Probability | Sparta Praha | Draw | Slovácko |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.5% | 26.0% | 16.5% |
| Market | 73.4% | 16.7% | 9.9% |
| Final | 69.5% | 19.0% | 11.5% |
| Edge | -4.0% | +2.3% | +1.7% |
Why Sparta Praha
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.0% per unit staked (our 69.5% × 1.31 − 1).
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko match preview
Sparta Praha is favored to win against Slovácko, with a 69% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. Sparta Praha's expected goals stand at 1.70, while Slovácko's is significantly lower at 0.81. Recent form shows Sparta Praha with two wins and a draw in their last three matches, while Slovácko has one win and two draws in their last three outings.
In terms of scoring, there is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams have a 47% probability of scoring at least once. Historically, Sparta Praha has dominated this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters, with Slovácko yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sparta Praha and Slovácko expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Sparta Praha and Slovácko attack and defence ratings
Sparta Praha
Slovácko
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 69.5% | 1.44 | -4.0% | 1.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.5% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 69.5% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| Slovácko | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Praha win | 32.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 42.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.6% |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 11.7% |
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko stats
Sparta Praha and Slovácko recent form
| Sparta Praha |
LDDWWW |
| Slovácko |
LWDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sparta Praha and Slovácko season so far
Sparta Praha record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Slovácko record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Sparta Praha | Slovácko | Czech Liga | 5-2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Slovácko | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-02 | Slovácko | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-24 | Sparta Praha | Slovácko | Czech Liga | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-05 | Slovácko | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 2-4 |
| 2024-02-25 | Slovácko | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 1-3 |
| 2023-09-17 | Sparta Praha | Slovácko | Czech Liga | 5-0 |
| 2023-05-23 | Slovácko | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-22 | Slovácko | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-11-09 | Sparta Praha | Slovácko | Czech Liga | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.3%, draw 16.7%, away 10.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 5.60 | 9.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 5.40 | 10.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.31 | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.25 | 5.60 | 9.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27 | 6.14 | 9.78 |
| SBO | 1.25 | 4.70 | 6.57 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .