Plzen
vs
Pardubice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Plzen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Plzen is the favourite, not a value bet.
Plzen vs Pardubice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plzen vs Pardubice
| Probability | Plzen | Draw | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 24.9% | 31.9% |
| Market | 59.1% | 22.1% | 18.8% |
| Final | 55.1% | 22.8% | 22.1% |
| Edge | -4.0% | +0.7% | +3.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.2% per unit staked (our 55.1% × 1.63 − 1).
Plzen vs Pardubice match preview
Plzen is set to face Pardubice in the Czech Liga with a kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. According to our model, Plzen has a 59% probability of winning, while Pardubice stands at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Plzen, with an expected goals tally of 1.84 for Plzen and 1.50 for Pardubice. The model also indicates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Plzen has recorded a mixed set of results, with their last six matches yielding two wins and four losses. Conversely, Pardubice has performed slightly better, securing three wins, two losses, and one draw in their last six outings. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team with one victory, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plzen and Pardubice expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Plzen and Pardubice attack and defence ratings
Plzen
Pardubice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Plzen vs Pardubice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 55.1% | 1.81 | -4.0% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 55.1% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Pardubice | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.6% |
| No | 34.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Plzen win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Plzen vs Pardubice stats
Plzen and Pardubice recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Plzen and Pardubice season so far
Plzen record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Pardubice record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Plzen vs Pardubice head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Plzen | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-18 | Pardubice | Plzen | Czech Liga | 1-5 |
| 2025-03-09 | Pardubice | Plzen | Czech Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Plzen | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-02 | Pardubice | Plzen | Czech Liga | 2-3 |
| 2023-09-24 | Plzen | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 6-2 |
| 2022-11-13 | Pardubice | Plzen | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-06 | Plzen | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-02-26 | Plzen | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Plzen vs Pardubice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.7%, draw 22.5%, away 18.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 4.25 | 4.92 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.95 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.25 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.28 | 4.97 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 3.76 | 4.61 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .