Zbrojovka Brno
vs
Baník Ostrava
Garuda Lions Prediction: Zbrojovka Brno
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Zbrojovka Brno is the favourite, not a value bet.
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava
| Probability | Zbrojovka Brno | Draw | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 27.3% | 23.0% |
| Market | 46.2% | 26.9% | 27.0% |
| Final | 47.0% | 27.0% | 26.0% |
| Edge | +0.9% | +0.1% | -1.0% |
Why Zbrojovka Brno
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.10 − 1).
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava match preview
Zbrojovka Brno hosts Baník Ostrava in a Czech Liga match on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Zbrojovka Brno has a 47% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 27% and Baník Ostrava at 26%. The expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno are 1.59, compared to 1.03 for Baník Ostrava. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows Zbrojovka Brno with mixed results, recording one win in their last five matches (L-D-W-L-L-W), while Baník Ostrava has struggled, with no wins in their last six (L-D-L-D-L-L). In their last five encounters, Zbrojovka Brno has secured two wins, with Baník Ostrava also winning twice and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava attack and defence ratings
Zbrojovka Brno
Baník Ostrava
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zbrojovka Brno | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.9% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zbrojovka Brno | 47.0% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Baník Ostrava | 26.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zbrojovka Brno win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava stats
Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava recent form
| Zbrojovka Brno |
LDWLLW |
| Baník Ostrava |
LDLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava season so far
Zbrojovka Brno record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Baník Ostrava record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-06 | Baník Ostrava | Zbrojovka Brno | Czech Liga | 4-0 |
| 2023-02-18 | Zbrojovka Brno | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-31 | Baník Ostrava | Zbrojovka Brno | Czech Liga | 1-2 |
| 2021-05-01 | Baník Ostrava | Zbrojovka Brno | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2020-12-23 | Zbrojovka Brno | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.2%, draw 26.9%, away 27.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.48 | 3.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.48 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.48 | 3.68 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.13 | 3.21 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .