Plzen
vs
Sparta Praha
Garuda Lions Prediction: Plzen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Plzen is the favourite, not a value bet.
Plzen vs Sparta Praha overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plzen vs Sparta Praha
| Probability | Plzen | Draw | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.8% | 27.1% | 36.0% |
| Market | 38.5% | 25.7% | 35.8% |
| Final | 38.1% | 26.0% | 35.9% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
Why Plzen
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.5% per unit staked (our 38.1% × 2.48 − 1).
Plzen vs Sparta Praha match preview
Plzen and Sparta Praha are set to clash in the Czech Liga, with Plzen holding a slight edge in win probability at 38% compared to Sparta Praha's 36%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Plzen, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 1.45 for Plzen and 1.44 for Sparta Praha. Both teams show a strong likelihood of scoring, with a 60% chance for both teams to find the net.
In terms of recent form, Plzen has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Sparta Praha has experienced a mix of results with one win, two draws, and three losses. The head-to-head record indicates a competitive matchup, with Plzen having no wins, two draws, and one loss against Sparta Praha in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plzen and Sparta Praha expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Plzen and Sparta Praha attack and defence ratings
Plzen
Sparta Praha
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Plzen vs Sparta Praha markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 38.1% | 2.63 | -0.4% | 2.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 38.1% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Sparta Praha | 35.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Plzen win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 63.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Plzen vs Sparta Praha stats
Plzen and Sparta Praha recent form
| Plzen |
WWLLWL |
| Sparta Praha |
LDWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Plzen and Sparta Praha season so far
Plzen record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Sparta Praha record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Plzen vs Sparta Praha head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Sparta Praha | Plzen | Czech Liga | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Plzen | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Sparta Praha | Plzen | Czech Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Plzen vs Sparta Praha odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 25.7%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 3.64 | 2.59 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.48 | 3.70 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.64 | 2.59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.67 | 2.60 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 3.08 | 2.42 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .