Teplice
vs
Pardubice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Teplice
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.06.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Teplice vs Pardubice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Teplice vs Pardubice
| Probability | Teplice | Draw | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.8% | 27.3% | 23.9% |
| Market | 37.7% | 27.4% | 34.9% |
| Final | 40.5% | 27.3% | 32.2% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -0.0% | -2.8% |
Why Teplice
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.06.
- The market prices Teplice below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.1% per unit staked (our 40.5% × 2.57 − 1).
Teplice vs Pardubice match preview
Teplice faces Pardubice in a Czech Liga matchup where the probabilities indicate Teplice has a 49% chance of winning, while a draw is at 27% and Pardubice at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring with a 10% probability. Expected goals suggest Teplice will score 1.60 and Pardubice 1.06, indicating a slight edge for the home side in offensive output.
Recent form shows Teplice with a record of W-D-L-D-W-L, while Pardubice has performed better, recording L-W-W-L-W-W. In their last two encounters, neither team has secured a win, with two draws recorded. The model also indicates a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Teplice and Pardubice expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Teplice and Pardubice attack and defence ratings
Teplice
Pardubice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Teplice vs Pardubice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Teplice | 40.5% | 2.47 | +2.8% | 2.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Teplice | 40.5% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Pardubice | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% |
| No | 46.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Teplice win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 51.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Teplice vs Pardubice stats
Teplice and Pardubice recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Teplice and Pardubice season so far
Teplice record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pardubice record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
Teplice vs Pardubice head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Pardubice | Teplice | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Teplice | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-25 | Teplice | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Teplice | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Pardubice | Teplice | Czech Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-17 | Pardubice | Teplice | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-02 | Teplice | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-06 | Teplice | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-19 | Pardubice | Teplice | Czech Liga | 3-1 |
| 2022-10-02 | Teplice | Pardubice | Czech Liga | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Teplice vs Pardubice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.7%, draw 27.4%, away 34.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.44 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.30 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.46 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.44 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.47 | 2.68 |
| SBO | 2.25 | 3.05 | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .