Lillestrom
vs
Molde
Garuda Lions Prediction: Molde
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Lillestrom vs Molde overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lillestrom vs Molde
| Probability | Lillestrom | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.0% | 20.7% | 52.2% |
| Market | 31.8% | 23.9% | 44.3% |
| Final | 30.6% | 23.1% | 46.3% |
| Edge | -4.8% | -3.1% | +7.9% |
Why Molde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.73.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Molde below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lillestrom vs Molde match preview
Lillestrom faces Molde in an Eliteserien clash on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 31% chance for Lillestrom to win, while Molde holds a 46% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% likelihood. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at 78%, and both teams scoring has a 75% probability.
In terms of recent form, Lillestrom has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Molde has secured five consecutive wins following an initial loss. The expected goals for Lillestrom stand at 1.73, compared to Molde's 2.40. In their last head-to-head encounter, Lillestrom emerged victorious with one win against Molde's zero. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting blended probabilities with market odds.
Lillestrom and Molde team news
Lillestrom news
- C. Jebara — injury
- E. B. Garnas — knee injury
Molde news
- B. Risa — injury
- E. Hestad — leg injury
- H. Stenevik — injury
- J. Abdullai — injury
- M. Kikkenborg — achilles tendon injury
- S. Diop — inactive
- S. Hansen — injury
- V. Hoff — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lillestrom and Molde expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.13
Lillestrom and Molde attack and defence ratings
Lillestrom
Molde
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lillestrom vs Molde markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 46.3% | 2.16 | +7.9% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 30.6% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Molde | 46.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.4% |
| No | 24.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 33.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.4% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Lillestrom vs Molde stats
Lillestrom and Molde recent form
| Lillestrom |
WLLWWW |
| Molde |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lillestrom and Molde season so far
Lillestrom record
- They have won 10 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Molde record
- They have won 11 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lillestrom vs Molde head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Molde | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lillestrom vs Molde odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 23.9%, away 44.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 4.00 | 2.13 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.90 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 4.00 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.90 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 3.90 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.03 | 4.02 | 2.12 |
| SBO | 2.57 | 3.39 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .