Eliteserien
·
Full time
·Matchday 23
Lillestrom
vs
Molde
2 – 2 Full time
| 10′ | Sander Hestetun Kilen | ||
| 16′ | Felix Vá | ||
| 24′ | Sondre Granaas | ||
| 26′ | Emil Breivik | ||
| 37′ | Sander Hestetun Kilen | ||
| 45′ | Lars RangerSturla Ottesen | ||
| 45′ | Sander Hestetun KilenMats Møller Dæhli | ||
| 50′ | Martin Linnes | ||
| 66′ | Frederik ElkaerWinston Robin Yaw Paintsil | ||
| 66′ | Daniel BassiFredrik Gulbrandsen | ||
| 67′ | Eirik HauganNiklas Ödegard | ||
| 67′ | Kristian LonebuTrent Kone-Doherty | ||
| 67′ | Martin LinnesViktor Bender | ||
| 80′ | Daniel Daga | ||
| 80′ | Eric KitolanoHenrik Molvaer Melland | ||
| 80′ | Daniel DagaBirk Risa | ||
| 87′ | Sander Moen Foss | ||
| 87′ | Gustav Kjolstad NyheimYildren Ibrahimaj |
Lillestrom
34%
Draw
23%
Molde
42%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 27 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 12 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 9 | Saves | 3 |
| 368 | Accurate passes | 552 |
Lillestrom vs Molde overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lillestrom vs Molde
| Probability | Lillestrom | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.0% | 20.7% | 52.3% |
| Market | 36.9% | 24.3% | 38.8% |
| Final | 34.4% | 23.4% | 42.2% |
| Edge | -2.5% | -0.9% | +3.4% |
Why Molde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.72.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Molde below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
92%
3+ goals
78%
No goals
2%
Lillestrom and Molde expected goals
Lillestrom
1.72
Molde
2.41
Total expected goals: 4.13
Lillestrom and Molde attack and defence ratings
Lillestrom
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Molde
Attack
1.86 +86%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lillestrom vs Molde: result vs prediction
Lillestrom 2 – 2 Molde
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lillestrom vs Molde markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 42.2% | 2.37 | +3.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 34.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Molde | 42.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% |
| No | 24.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Lillestrom vs Molde stats
Lillestrom and Molde recent form
| Lillestrom |
WLLWWW |
| Molde |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lillestrom and Molde going into this match
Lillestrom record
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Molde record
- They have won 11 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lillestrom vs Molde head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
3Lillestrom wins
1Draws
5Molde wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Molde | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Lillestrom | Molde | NM Cupen | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-11 | Lillestrom | Molde | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-07 | Molde | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 3-0 |
| 2023-11-12 | Molde | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 4-0 |
| 2023-04-23 | Lillestrom | Molde | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Lillestrom | Molde | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
| 2022-04-18 | Molde | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2021-12-05 | Molde | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lillestrom vs Molde odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.9%, draw 24.3%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.63 | 3.96 | 2.41 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.80 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.56 | 3.86 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 4.09 | 2.54 |
| SBO | 2.52 | 3.69 | 2.27 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.52 ▼ -0.40
X
3.83 ▼ -0.04
2
2.41 ▲ +0.31
18 snapshots recorded, from .