Aalesund
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aalesund
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
| Probability | Aalesund | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 20.7% | 22.8% |
| Market | 37.4% | 24.9% | 37.8% |
| Final | 42.1% | 23.8% | 34.0% |
| Edge | +19.1% | -4.1% | -14.9% |
Why Aalesund
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aalesund below the model: +19.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.59, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF match preview
Aalesund is set to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in the Eliteserien, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. Aalesund has a 42% probability of winning, while Sarpsborg 08 FF stands at 34%, and a draw is rated at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Aalesund, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at a rate of 75%, and both teams are anticipated to score, with a probability of 71%.
In terms of recent form, Aalesund has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Sarpsborg 08 FF has achieved two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The expected goals for Aalesund are 2.39, compared to Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.50, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF team news
Aalesund news
- A. Kjelsen — injury
- H. Hammer — injury
- I. Djantou — inactive
- J. Seehusen — injury
- M. Andresen — yellow cards
- M. Kristensen — injury
- P. Ngongo — surgery
- S. Haram — elbow injury
Sarpsborg 08 FF news
- F. Carstensen — injury
- M. Opoku — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.89
Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF attack and defence ratings
Aalesund
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalesund | 42.1% | 2.37 | +19.1% | 2.59 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalesund | 42.1% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 34.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% |
| No | 28.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalesund win | 36.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 43.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.0% |
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF stats
Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form
| Aalesund |
WWLWLW |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF |
WLDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF season so far
Aalesund record
- They have won 3 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarpsborg 08 FF record
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 24.9%, away 37.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.78 | 2.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 4.00 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.68 | 2.47 |
| Pinnacle | 2.59 | 3.72 | 2.54 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 3.41 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .