Eliteserien · 2026-10-11T15:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 23

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

2 – 4 Full time

5′			Eirik Wichne
9′			Bjorn Utvik
40′			Sigurd Rosted
51′			Sondre Sorlie
54′			Noa Williams
62′			Isak Gabriel SkotheimElias Heggland Myrlid
62′			Endre OsenbrochSander Erik Kartum
65′			Olaus Jair Skarsem
68′			Mbacke DiopPhilip Sandvik Aukland
70′			Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
71′			Sigurd RostedMarius Lode
71′			Olaus Jair SkarsemAimar Sher
72′			Andreas HansenVictor Emanuel Halvorsen
74′			Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
78′			Eirik WichneAnders Hiim
78′			Noa WilliamsClaus Babo Niyukuri
80′			Ólafur Gudmundsson
83′			Marcus ReedPaul Ngongo
83′			Philip Sandvik AuklandJakob Nyland Örsahl

Color Line Stadion, ÅlesundReferee: Svein Tore Sinnes

Aalesund

43%

Draw

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF

33%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

23	Shots	18
7	Shots on target	8
53	Possession %	47
8	Corners	6
17	Fouls	14
0	Offsides	1
4	Saves	5
373	Accurate passes	339

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Aalesund	Draw	Sarpsborg 08 FF
Model	56.4%	20.7%	22.9%
Market	39.0%	25.0%	36.0%
Final	43.4%	23.9%	32.7%
Edge	+4.3%	-1.1%	-3.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Aalesund

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.51.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Aalesund below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

97%

2+ goals

91%

3+ goals

75%

No goals

Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals

Aalesund

2.39

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.51

Total expected goals: 3.89

Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF attack and defence ratings

Aalesund

Attack

1.62 +62%

Defence

1.24 +24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Attack

0.90 -10%

Defence

0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: result vs prediction

Aalesund 2 – 4 Sarpsborg 08 FF

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Eliteserien

Brann vs Viking — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
Bodo/Glimt v Kristiansund BK — match page · 2026-10-10
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Fredrikstad vs Tromso · 2026-10-11
Start vs Ham-Kam · 2026-10-11
Lillestrom vs Molde · 2026-10-11
KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga — team news & stats · 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Aalesund, previous: Molde vs Aalesund prediction
Aalesund, next: Kristiansund BK v Aalesund analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF, previous: Follo – Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2026-09-30
Sarpsborg 08 FF, next: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg: odds and pick

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Aalesund	43.4%	2.31	+4.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74.6%	1.34	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	71.4%	1.40	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	76.1%	1.31	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	43.6%	2.29	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Aalesund	43.4%
	Draw	23.9%
	Sarpsborg 08 FF	32.7%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74.6%
	Under 2.5	25.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	71.4%
	No	28.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	67.3%
	12 (either side)	76.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	56.6%
Handicap -1	Aalesund win	36.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.0%
	Loss	43.6%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	8.7%
	1-1	8.1%
	3-1	7.0%

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF stats

Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form

newest first

Aalesund	WWLWLW
Sarpsborg 08 FF	WLDDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF going into this match

league record before kick-off

Aalesund record

They have won 4 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sarpsborg 08 FF record

They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Aalesund wins 1Draws 7Sarpsborg 08 FF wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2023-10-22	Aalesund	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Eliteserien	3-2
2023-05-29	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Aalesund	Eliteserien	3-1
2022-09-11	Aalesund	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Eliteserien	1-3
2022-05-22	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Aalesund	Eliteserien	1-2
2020-09-13	Aalesund	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Eliteserien	0-1
2020-08-02	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Aalesund	Eliteserien	4-0
2017-11-19	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Aalesund	Eliteserien	1-0
2017-04-05	Aalesund	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Eliteserien	1-3
2016-08-26	Aalesund	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Eliteserien	2-2
2016-05-12	Sarpsborg 08 FF	Aalesund	Eliteserien	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 25.0%, away 36.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.49	3.74	2.65
Bet365	2.38	3.75	2.62
BetVictor	2.30	3.80	2.50
Betano	2.40	3.75	2.60
Betfair	2.30	4.00	2.50
Dafabet	2.44	3.85	2.65
Marathonbet	2.42	3.64	2.58
Pinnacle	2.49	3.78	2.72
SBO	2.23	3.46	2.42
William Hill	2.40	3.40	2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.40 ▼ -0.09

X 3.75 ▲ +0.02

2 2.60 ▲ +0.14

17 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-03T08:10:03Z.