Molde
vs
Aalesund
1 – 2 Full time
| 7′ | Mathias Christensen | ||
| 32′ | Marius Andresen | ||
| 44′ | Isak Gabriel Skotheim | ||
| 45′ | Trent Kone-DohertyCaleb Sery | ||
| 45′ | Oskar Spiten NysaeterMathias Lovik | ||
| 45′ | Samukele KabiniMats Møller Dæhli | ||
| 47′ | Jalal Abdullai | ||
| 47′ | Sindre Tjelmeland | ||
| 60′ | Luca Podlech | ||
| 70′ | Niklas Ödegard | ||
| 71′ | Martin LinnesKristian Lonebu | ||
| 79′ | Marcus ReedElias Heggland Myrlid | ||
| 79′ | Isak Gabriel SkotheimSander Erik Kartum | ||
| 79′ | Aleksander Hammer KjelsenSimen Vatne Haram | ||
| 79′ | Fredrik Kristensen DahlSander Hestetun Kilen | ||
| 82′ | Kristian Lonebu | ||
| 86′ | Endre OsenbrochTobias Leikanger | ||
| 90′ | Mathias Christensen | ||
| 90′ | Tor Erik Valderhaug Larsen |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 68 | Possession % | 32 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 506 | Accurate passes | 190 |
Molde vs Aalesund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Molde vs Aalesund
| Probability | Molde | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.6% | 10.4% | 11.1% |
| Market | 69.9% | 16.8% | 13.3% |
| Final | 72.1% | 15.2% | 12.7% |
| Edge | +8.6% | -6.4% | -2.2% |
Why Molde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.50 vs 1.98.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Molde below the model: +8.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Molde and Aalesund expected goals
Total expected goals: 6.48
Molde and Aalesund attack and defence ratings
Molde
Aalesund
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Molde vs Aalesund: result vs prediction
Molde 1 – 2 Aalesund
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 22 fixtures
Before and after this match
Molde vs Aalesund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 72.1% | 1.39 | +8.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 95.6% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 64.7% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 72.1% |
| Draw | 15.2% | |
| Aalesund | 12.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 95.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 4.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 85.4% |
| No | 14.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 64.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.8% | |
| Loss | 21.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 4-1 | 5.2% |
| 4-2 | 5.2% | |
| 5-1 | 4.7% |
Molde vs Aalesund stats
Molde and Aalesund recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Molde and Aalesund going into this match
Molde record
- They have won 11 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalesund record
- They have won 3 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Molde vs Aalesund head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Aalesund | Molde | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Molde | Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2023-05-16 | Aalesund | Molde | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2023-05-03 | Molde | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 3-0 |
| 2023-03-25 | Aalesund | Molde | Friendlies Clubs | 0-3 |
| 2022-09-18 | Molde | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 3-0 |
| 2022-05-16 | Aalesund | Molde | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Molde vs Aalesund odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.9%, draw 16.8%, away 13.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 5.72 | 7.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.35 | 5.30 | 7.20 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 6.00 | 7.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 5.55 | 7.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.61 | 7.17 |
| SBO | 1.25 | 5.42 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .