NM Cupen
·
Full time
·Round of 64
Førde
vs
Aalesund
3 – 4 Full time
| 3′ | L. Podlech | ||
| 7′ | V. Lorgen | ||
| 11′ | V. Lorgen | ||
| 89′ | E. Myrlid | ||
| 90′ | E. Hagen | ||
| 95′ | I. Djantou | ||
| 105′ | D. Gjelsvik | ||
| 111′ | E. Myrlid |
Førde
9%
Draw
12%
Aalesund
78%
Førde vs Aalesund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Førde vs Aalesund
| Probability | Førde | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9.3% | 12.3% | 78.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 9.3% | 12.3% | 78.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Aalesund
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.53 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
99%
2+ goals
96%
3+ goals
86%
No goals
1%
Førde and Aalesund expected goals
Førde
1.29
Aalesund
3.53
Total expected goals: 4.82
Førde and Aalesund attack and defence ratings
Førde
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Aalesund
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Førde vs Aalesund: result vs prediction
Førde 3 – 4 Aalesund
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Førde vs Aalesund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalesund | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.7% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Aalesund win | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Førde | 9.3% |
| Draw | 12.3% | |
| Aalesund | 78.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% |
| No | 29.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 21.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalesund win | 62.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 21.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.6% |
| 1-4 | 6.7% | |
| 1-2 | 6.5% |