Eliteserien · 2026-09-13T15:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 21

KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund

2 – 1 Full time

5′			Mbacke Diop
10′			Bilal Njie
31′			Sander Erik Kartum
39′			Marcus Reed
45′			Hakon Helland Hoseth
53′			Ólafur Gudmundsson
57′			Hakon RostenDaniel Schneider
57′			David Hickson GyeduOla Visted
60′			Luca Podlech
61′			Daniel Schneider
63′			Kristoffer NessoJakob Nyland Örsahl
63′			Sander Erik KartumStefano Vecchia
71′			Bilal NjieRasmus Eggen Vinge
71′			Bjorn Martin KristensenJulian Bakkeli Gonstad
73′			Isak Gabriel SkotheimElias Heggland Myrlid
73′			Marius AndresenSimen Vatne Haram
77′			Simen Vatne Haram
88′			Martin Tangen VinjorBrage Tobiassen
88′			Kjetil André Rekdal

KFUM Arena, OsloReferee: C. Moen

KFUM Oslo

38%

Draw

24%

Aalesund

38%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

9	Shots	19
5	Shots on target	3
39	Possession %	61
6	Corners	4
10	Fouls	15
2	Saves	3
263	Accurate passes	463

KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund overview

Garuda Lions analysis: KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	KFUM Oslo	Draw	Aalesund
Model	32.3%	21.3%	46.4%
Market	39.5%	25.1%	35.4%
Final	37.7%	24.1%	38.2%
Edge	-7.2%	-3.7%	+11.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Aalesund

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.89.
The market prices Aalesund below the model: +11.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

98%

2+ goals

92%

3+ goals

78%

No goals

KFUM Oslo and Aalesund expected goals

KFUM Oslo

1.89

Aalesund

2.24

Total expected goals: 4.13

KFUM Oslo and Aalesund attack and defence ratings

KFUM Oslo

Attack

0.85 -15%

Defence

1.00 +0%

Aalesund

Attack

1.66 +66%

Defence

1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund: result vs prediction

KFUM Oslo 2 – 1 Aalesund

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Eliteserien

Lillestrom v Valerenga — match page · 2026-09-12
Rosenborg vs Tromso — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Viking vs Kristiansund BK · 2026-09-13
Start vs Brann — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
Ham-Kam v Molde — match page · 2026-09-13
Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
Bodo/Glimt v Sandefjord — match page · 2026-09-14

Before and after this match

KFUM Oslo, previous: Molde vs KFUM Oslo: odds and pick
KFUM Oslo, next: Sarpsborg 08 FF v KFUM Oslo analysis
Aalesund, previous: Aalesund v Start analysis
Aalesund, next: Førde – Aalesund, 2026-09-16

KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Aalesund	38.2%	2.62	+11.0%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78.3%	1.28	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	76.7%	1.30	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	75.9%	1.32	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	54.1%	1.85	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	KFUM Oslo	37.7%
	Draw	24.1%
	Aalesund	38.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78.3%
	Under 2.5	21.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	76.7%
	No	23.3%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	61.8%
	12 (either side)	75.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	62.3%
Handicap -1	Aalesund win	27.6%
	Push (exactly one goal)	18.3%
	Loss	54.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-2	7.6%
	1-1	7.4%
	2-2	7.2%

KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund stats

KFUM Oslo and Aalesund recent form

newest first

KFUM Oslo	LLWDWW
Aalesund	WLWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

KFUM Oslo and Aalesund going into this match

league record before kick-off

KFUM Oslo record

They have won 5 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 19 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 19 matches.

Aalesund record

They have won 3 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

0KFUM Oslo wins 1Draws 4Aalesund wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-12	Aalesund	KFUM Oslo	Eliteserien	2-2
2021-10-29	KFUM Oslo	Aalesund	1. Division	2-4
2021-05-23	Aalesund	KFUM Oslo	1. Division	1-0
2019-09-18	Aalesund	KFUM Oslo	1. Division	2-1
2019-07-21	KFUM Oslo	Aalesund	1. Division	2-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.8%, draw 25.1%, away 35.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.38	3.70	2.65
1xBet	2.40	3.82	2.71
888Sport	2.30	3.50	2.63
Bet365	2.35	3.70	2.62
BetVictor	2.30	3.60	2.60
Betano	2.35	3.70	2.67
Betfair	2.40	3.80	2.55
Dafabet	2.31	3.85	2.80
Marathonbet	2.34	3.74	2.65
Pinnacle	2.40	3.99	2.73
SBO	2.24	3.28	2.50
Unibet	2.28	3.55	2.85
William Hill	2.30	3.60	2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.35 ▲ +0.05

X 3.70 ▼ -0.06

2 2.62 ▼ -0.13

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-07T08:10:02Z.