Eliteserien
·
Full time
·Matchday 21
Lillestrom
vs
Valerenga
2 – 0 Full time
| 25′ | Ruben Gabrielsen | ||
| 29′ | Fredrik Gulbrandsen | ||
| 41′ | Sebastian Jarl | ||
| 58′ | Dennis GjengaarGabriel Rajkovic | ||
| 58′ | Ghayas ZahidOdin Thiago Holm | ||
| 70′ | Håkon Sjåtil | ||
| 70′ | Carl LangePetter Strand | ||
| 70′ | Lucas Janus Ravn-HarenOle Christian Hammerfjell Saeter | ||
| 73′ | Daniel BassiWinston Robin Yaw Paintsil | ||
| 73′ | Fredrik GulbrandsenThomas Lehne Olsen | ||
| 80′ | Frederik Elkaer | ||
| 84′ | Mathias GrundetjernHåvard Nielsen | ||
| 86′ | Eric KitolanoFilip Ottosson | ||
| 90′ | Yildren IbrahimajStian Kristiansen | ||
| 90′ | Gabriel Rajkovic | ||
| 90′ | Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter | ||
| 90′ | Thomas Lehne Olsen |
Lillestrom
48%
Draw
23%
Valerenga
29%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 0 |
| 309 | Accurate passes | 297 |
Lillestrom vs Valerenga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lillestrom vs Valerenga
| Probability | Lillestrom | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.2% | 20.6% | 33.2% |
| Market | 49.1% | 23.9% | 27.0% |
| Final | 48.4% | 23.1% | 28.6% |
| Edge | -2.8% | -3.3% | +6.2% |
Why Lillestrom
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 2.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
94%
3+ goals
82%
No goals
2%
Lillestrom and Valerenga expected goals
Lillestrom
2.38
Valerenga
2.02
Total expected goals: 4.40
Lillestrom and Valerenga attack and defence ratings
Lillestrom
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Valerenga
Attack
1.58 +58%
Defence
1.51 +51%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lillestrom vs Valerenga: result vs prediction
Lillestrom 2 – 0 Valerenga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lillestrom vs Valerenga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 48.4% | 2.07 | -2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 48.4% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Valerenga | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.3% |
| No | 20.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.1% |
| 2-1 | 7.0% | |
| 1-1 | 6.5% |
Lillestrom vs Valerenga stats
Lillestrom and Valerenga recent form
| Lillestrom |
WWLWDD |
| Valerenga |
DLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lillestrom and Valerenga going into this match
Lillestrom record
- They have won 9 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valerenga record
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 19 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lillestrom vs Valerenga head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
4Lillestrom wins
3Draws
1Valerenga wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Valerenga | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2023-10-22 | Lillestrom | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-01 | Valerenga | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 3-4 |
| 2022-09-04 | Valerenga | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2022-05-25 | Lillestrom | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 2-0 |
| 2021-11-07 | Lillestrom | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 0-0 |
| 2021-07-11 | Valerenga | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2019-10-26 | Lillestrom | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lillestrom vs Valerenga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.5%, draw 23.9%, away 26.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 4.08 | 3.54 |
| 888Sport | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.88 | 4.10 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.98 | 3.46 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 4.14 | 3.59 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.56 | 3.08 |
| Superbet | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| Unibet | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.90 —
X
3.90 ▼ -0.17
2
3.45 ▼ -0.21
13 snapshots recorded, from .