Eliteserien
·
Full time
·Matchday 20
Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Valerenga
2 – 2 Full time
| 28′ | C. Niyukuri | ||
| 63′ | M. OpokuS. Sorli | ||
| 64′ | G. ZahidP. Strand | ||
| 69′ | C. NiyukuriP. Reinhardsen | ||
| 69′ | O. T. HolmG. Rajkovic | ||
| 69′ | D. GjengaarO. Saeter | ||
| 70′ | V. E. HalvorsenA. Nibe | ||
| 80′ | Magnus Westergaard | ||
| 81′ | S. Sorli | ||
| 84′ | P. Strand | ||
| 88′ | O. SkarsemE. Wichne | ||
| 88′ | C. LangeK. Tshiembe | ||
| 90′ | Peter Reinhardsen | ||
| 90′ | G. Rajkovic |
Sarpsborg 08 FF
48%
Draw
23%
Valerenga
28%
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 6 |
| 340 | Accurate passes | 523 |
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga
| Probability | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.8% | 21.8% | 28.4% |
| Market | 47.8% | 24.0% | 28.2% |
| Final | 48.3% | 23.4% | 28.3% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -2.2% | +0.2% |
Why Sarpsborg 08 FF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.68.
- The market prices Sarpsborg 08 FF below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
75%
No goals
3%
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga expected goals
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2.23
Valerenga
1.68
Total expected goals: 3.91
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga attack and defence ratings
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Attack
0.81 -19%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Valerenga
Attack
1.59 +59%
Defence
1.54 +54%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga: result vs prediction
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 – 2 Valerenga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 48.3% | 2.07 | +2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 48.3% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Valerenga | 28.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% |
| No | 26.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 50.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga stats
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga recent form
| Sarpsborg 08 FF |
DWLLDW |
| Valerenga |
LWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga going into this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF record
- They have won 6 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 18 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valerenga record
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 19 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Sarpsborg 08 FF wins
2Draws
6Valerenga wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Valerenga | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-17 | Valerenga | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 4-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-01 | Valerenga | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-09 | Valerenga | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Friendlies Clubs | 5-3 |
| 2023-11-05 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 3-2 |
| 2023-04-16 | Valerenga | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2023-01-27 | Valerenga | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2022-10-29 | Valerenga | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 3-3 |
| 2022-07-17 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 24.1%, away 28.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.98 | 3.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.95 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.96 | 3.88 | 3.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 4.20 | 3.34 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.37 | 2.59 |
| Unibet | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.96 ▼ -0.17
X
3.89 ▲ +0.14
2
3.31 ▲ +0.36
11 snapshots recorded, from .