Valerenga
vs
Molde
3 – 4 Full time
Valerenga vs Molde overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Valerenga vs Molde
| Probability | Valerenga | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.8% | 16.1% | 54.1% |
| Market | 35.7% | 24.0% | 40.3% |
| Final | 34.2% | 22.0% | 43.8% |
| Edge | -5.9% | -7.9% | +13.8% |
Why Molde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.46 vs 2.69.
- The market prices Molde below the model: +13.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Valerenga and Molde expected goals
Total expected goals: 6.15
Valerenga and Molde attack and defence ratings
Valerenga
Molde
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Valerenga vs Molde: result vs prediction
Valerenga 3 – 4 Molde
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
Valerenga vs Molde markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 43.8% | 2.29 | +13.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 94.5% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 90.5% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valerenga | 34.2% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Molde | 43.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 94.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 5.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 90.5% |
| No | 9.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 46.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-3 | 5.3% |
| 3-3 | 4.8% | |
| 2-4 | 4.6% |
Valerenga vs Molde stats
Valerenga and Molde recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Valerenga and Molde going into this match
Valerenga record
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 19 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Molde record
- They have won 9 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valerenga vs Molde head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Molde | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 5-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Molde | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 4-1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Valerenga | Molde | Eliteserien | 2-3 |
| 2023-08-19 | Molde | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-15 | Valerenga | Molde | Eliteserien | 0-4 |
| 2022-11-13 | Valerenga | Molde | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2022-04-02 | Molde | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
| 2021-09-19 | Valerenga | Molde | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2021-05-27 | Molde | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Valerenga vs Molde odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 24.0%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.33 |
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 4.08 | 2.35 |
| 888Sport | 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.90 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.80 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 4.00 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.90 | 2.41 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.98 | 2.29 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.91 | 2.35 |
| SBO | 2.46 | 3.52 | 2.17 |
| Superbet | 2.62 | 3.75 | 2.37 |
| Unibet | 2.50 | 3.95 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .