Viking
vs
Aalesund
2 – 1 Full time
Viking vs Aalesund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Viking vs Aalesund
| Probability | Viking | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.2% | 16.4% | 21.4% |
| Market | 72.9% | 15.5% | 11.6% |
| Final | 70.2% | 15.8% | 14.0% |
| Edge | -10.7% | +0.8% | +9.8% |
Why Viking
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.23 vs 1.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Viking and Aalesund expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.21
Viking and Aalesund attack and defence ratings
Viking
Aalesund
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Viking vs Aalesund: result vs prediction
Viking 2 – 1 Aalesund
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
Viking vs Aalesund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viking | 70.2% | 1.42 | -10.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.2% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Viking win | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viking | 70.2% |
| Draw | 15.8% | |
| Aalesund | 14.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 10.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 83.2% |
| No | 16.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Viking win | 44.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 37.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.1% |
| 3-2 | 6.0% | |
| 2-1 | 5.6% |
Viking vs Aalesund stats
Viking and Aalesund recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Viking and Aalesund going into this match
Viking record
- They have won 14 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalesund record
- They have won 2 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Viking vs Aalesund head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Aalesund | Viking | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Viking | Aalesund | NM Cupen | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-25 | Aalesund | Viking | NM Cupen | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-26 | Aalesund | Viking | Eliteserien | 0-4 |
| 2023-07-24 | Viking | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2022-10-02 | Aalesund | Viking | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
| 2022-04-10 | Viking | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
| 2020-09-20 | Viking | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 5-2 |
| 2020-08-09 | Aalesund | Viking | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2019-09-26 | Aalesund | Viking | NM Cupen | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Viking vs Aalesund odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.1%, draw 15.4%, away 11.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.25 | 6.00 | 9.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 6.28 | 8.55 |
| 888Sport | 1.20 | 6.50 | 10.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.75 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.30 | 6.40 | 8.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 6.10 | 8.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.28 | 6.20 | 8.07 |
| SBO | 1.24 | 5.42 | 6.66 |
| Superbet | 1.29 | 6.00 | 7.50 |
| Unibet | 1.25 | 6.25 | 9.50 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .