Eliteserien
·
Full time
·Matchday 20
Brann
vs
Lillestrom
1 – 2 Full time
| 4′ | Espen Bjornsen GarnasStian Kristiansen | ||
| 6′ | Felix Vá | ||
| 22′ | Fredrik Gulbrandsen | ||
| 45′ | Noah Jean Holm | ||
| 45′ | Thore PedersenLeo Cornic | ||
| 56′ | Yildren Ibrahimaj | ||
| 61′ | Daniel BassiWinston Robin Yaw Paintsil | ||
| 61′ | Fredrik GulbrandsenThomas Lehne Olsen | ||
| 68′ | Ulrik MathisenKristall Mani Ingason | ||
| 68′ | Noah Jean HolmBård Finne | ||
| 75′ | Niklas WassbergSaevar Atli Magnusson | ||
| 75′ | Gustav Kjolstad NyheimFilip Ottosson | ||
| 83′ | Niklas CastroJulian Laegreid | ||
| 89′ | Bård Finne |
Brann
57%
Draw
23%
Lillestrom
21%
Match stats
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 73 | Possession % | 27 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 580 | Accurate passes | 172 |
Brann vs Lillestrom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brann vs Lillestrom
| Probability | Brann | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.3% | 21.2% | 14.5% |
| Market | 54.3% | 23.1% | 22.6% |
| Final | 56.8% | 22.6% | 20.6% |
| Edge | +10.0% | -1.9% | -8.1% |
Why Brann
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Brann below the model: +10.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Brann and Lillestrom expected goals
Brann
2.18
Lillestrom
0.95
Total expected goals: 3.14
Brann and Lillestrom attack and defence ratings
Brann
Attack
1.27 +27%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Lillestrom
Attack
0.87 -13%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Brann vs Lillestrom: result vs prediction
Brann 1 – 2 Lillestrom
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brann vs Lillestrom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brann | 56.8% | 1.76 | +10.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Brann win | 41.9% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brann | 56.8% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Lillestrom | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brann win | 41.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 35.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.3% |
| 1-1 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Brann vs Lillestrom stats
Brann and Lillestrom recent form
| Brann |
DWWDWW |
| Lillestrom |
WLWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brann and Lillestrom going into this match
Brann record
- They have won 8 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lillestrom record
- They have won 9 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brann vs Lillestrom head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
6Brann wins
2Draws
0Lillestrom wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Brann | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-12 | Lillestrom | Brann | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2023-10-01 | Lillestrom | Brann | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2023-06-11 | Brann | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-20 | Brann | Lillestrom | NM Cupen | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-11 | Lillestrom | Brann | Eliteserien | 2-3 |
| 2021-06-30 | Brann | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2019-09-01 | Lillestrom | Brann | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brann vs Lillestrom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.5%, draw 23.4%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 4.14 | 4.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.85 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.88 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 4.37 | 4.18 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.42 | 3.25 |
| Unibet | 1.81 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.73 ▼ -0.15
X
4.05 ▲ +0.25
2
4.14 ▲ +0.51
12 snapshots recorded, from .