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NM Cupen · Full time ·Round 1

Aurskog Finstadbru vs Lillestrom

0 – 3 Full time

11′W. Fadil
15′G. Nyheim
89′G. Nordh
Aurskog Finstadbru 22%
Draw 24%
Lillestrom 54%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Aurskog Finstadbru vs Lillestrom overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Aurskog Finstadbru vs Lillestrom

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAurskog FinstadbruDrawLillestrom
Model21.7%24.3%54.0%
Market———
Final21.7%24.3%54.0%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Lillestrom

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.15.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Aurskog Finsta ↓ / Lillestrom → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 9% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Aurskog Finstadbru and Lillestrom expected goals

Aurskog Finstadbru 1.15
Lillestrom 1.91

Total expected goals: 3.06

Aurskog Finstadbru and Lillestrom attack and defence ratings

Aurskog Finstadbru

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Lillestrom

Attack 0.57 -43%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Aurskog Finstadbru vs Lillestrom: result vs prediction

Aurskog Finstadbru 0 – 3 Lillestrom

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round 1 fixtures

NM Cupen

Before and after this match

Aurskog Finstadbru vs Lillestrom markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lillestrom 54.0% 1.85 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.0% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.3% 1.69 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.3% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.0% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Aurskog Finstadbru21.7%
Draw24.3%
Lillestrom54.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%
Both teams to scoreYes59.3%
No40.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)46.0%
12 (either side)75.7%
X2 (draw or away)78.3%
Handicap -1Lillestrom win31.9%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss46.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
1-29.8%
0-28.5%

Aurskog Finstadbru vs Lillestrom stats

Aurskog Finstadbru and Lillestrom recent form

newest first
Aurskog Finstadbru no matches on record
Lillestrom LWDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Aurskog Finstadbru vs Lillestrom head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Aurskog Finstadbru vs Lillestrom odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.