Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Rosenborg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rosenborg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg
| Probability | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Draw | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 23.1% | 47.7% |
| Market | 39.7% | 24.7% | 35.5% |
| Final | 37.1% | 24.3% | 38.6% |
| Edge | -10.6% | -1.6% | +12.2% |
Why Rosenborg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rosenborg below the model: +12.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg match preview
Sarpsborg 08 FF faces Rosenborg in their upcoming Eliteserien match, with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Sarpsborg has a 35% chance of winning, while Rosenborg is slightly favored at 40%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with both teams showing a strong likelihood to score, each having a 70% chance of doing so. Expected goals are calculated at 1.58 for Sarpsborg and 2.03 for Rosenborg.
In terms of recent form, Sarpsborg has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Rosenborg has three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters shows Sarpsborg with one win, one draw, and one victory for Rosenborg, indicating a balanced rivalry.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg team news
Sarpsborg 08 FF news
- F. Carstensen — injury
- M. Opoku — ankle injury
Rosenborg news
- A. Chiakha — yellow cards
- E. Slordal — foot injury
- H. Volden — injury
- J. Bakke — injury
- O. Selnaes — suspended
- T. Nemcik — yellow cards
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg attack and defence ratings
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Rosenborg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosenborg | 38.6% | 2.59 | +12.2% | 2.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 37.1% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Rosenborg | 38.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.9% |
| No | 30.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg stats
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg recent form
| Sarpsborg 08 FF |
WWLDDD |
| Rosenborg |
DWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg season so far
Sarpsborg 08 FF record
- They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rosenborg record
- They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Rosenborg | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Rosenborg | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 2-3 |
| 2025-07-18 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Rosenborg | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-25 | Rosenborg | Sarpsborg 08 FF | NM Cupen | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-23 | Rosenborg | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-12 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Rosenborg | Eliteserien | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Rosenborg | Eliteserien | 5-2 |
| 2023-06-25 | Rosenborg | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 0-3 |
| 2022-11-13 | Rosenborg | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.8%, draw 24.8%, away 36.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.88 | 2.73 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.48 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.78 | 2.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.99 | 2.60 |
| SBO | 2.42 | 3.31 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .