Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Aalesund
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sarpsborg 08 FF
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sarpsborg 08 FF is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund
| Probability | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.9% | 21.0% | 39.2% |
| Market | 50.6% | 23.4% | 26.0% |
| Final | 47.9% | 22.8% | 29.3% |
| Edge | -2.7% | -0.6% | +3.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.0% per unit staked (our 47.9% × 1.90 − 1).
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund match preview
Sarpsborg 08 FF faces Aalesund in a closely contested Eliteserien matchup, with our model assigning a 40% probability of a Sarpsborg victory, while Aalesund stands at 39%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Sarpsborg, occurring with a 7% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring affair, with an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Sarpsborg 08 FF has recorded one win in their last five matches, while Aalesund has secured three wins in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Sarpsborg 08 FF with 7 wins, Aalesund with 2 wins, and 1 draw in their last 10 encounters. Expected goals are closely matched, with Sarpsborg at 2.19 and Aalesund at 2.17.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund team news
Sarpsborg 08 FF news
- F. Carstensen — injury
- M. Opoku — ankle injury
Aalesund news
- A. Kjelsen — injury
- H. Hammer — injury
- M. Reed — injury
- P. Aukland — injury
- S. Haram — elbow injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.36
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund attack and defence ratings
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 47.9% | 2.09 | -2.7% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 47.9% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Aalesund | 29.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.3% |
| No | 20.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF win | 23.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-1 | 6.7% | |
| 2-1 | 6.6% |
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund stats
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund recent form
| Sarpsborg 08 FF |
LWWLDD |
| Aalesund |
WLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund season so far
Sarpsborg 08 FF record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Aalesund record
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aalesund | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 2-4 |
| 2023-10-22 | Aalesund | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 3-2 |
| 2023-05-29 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2022-09-11 | Aalesund | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
| 2022-05-22 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2020-09-13 | Aalesund | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
| 2020-08-02 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 4-0 |
| 2017-11-19 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
| 2017-04-05 | Aalesund | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
| 2016-08-26 | Aalesund | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.6%, draw 23.4%, away 26.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 4.08 | 3.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.98 | 3.64 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 4.06 | 3.83 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.57 | 3.12 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .