Viking
vs
Tromso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Viking
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.47.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Viking is the favourite, not a value bet.
Viking vs Tromso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Viking vs Tromso
| Probability | Viking | Draw | Tromso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.6% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Market | 63.0% | 19.9% | 17.2% |
| Final | 63.1% | 19.5% | 17.4% |
| Edge | +0.2% | -0.4% | +0.3% |
Why Viking
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (our 63.1% × 1.52 − 1).
Viking vs Tromso match preview
Viking enters this matchup against Tromso with a solid probability of winning at 63%, reflecting their recent form of three wins in the last five matches. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive performance from Viking, with an expected tally of 2.73, while Tromso is projected to score around 1.47. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Viking, with a significant 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Tromso, on the other hand, has struggled recently, managing only one win in their last six matches. Their head-to-head record against Viking also leans heavily towards the home side, with Viking winning four out of the last ten encounters, alongside five draws and just one win for Tromso. The confidence grade for this forecast stands at C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Viking and Tromso team news
Viking news
- A. Baertelsen — foot injury
- H. Falchener — knee injury
- K. Askildsen — suspended
- K. Haugen — leg injury
- M. Roseth — knee injury
- S. Bjorshol — knee injury
- V. Berisha — thigh injury
Tromso news
- L. Hien — suspended
- M. Tonnessen — injury
- S. Prestmo — injury
- V. Erlien — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Viking and Tromso expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.20
Viking and Tromso attack and defence ratings
Viking
Tromso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Viking vs Tromso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viking | 63.1% | 1.58 | +0.2% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Viking win | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viking | 63.1% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Tromso | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.6% |
| No | 27.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Viking win | 44.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 36.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | |
| 1-1 | 6.6% |
Viking vs Tromso stats
Viking and Tromso recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Viking and Tromso season so far
Viking record
- They have won 18 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tromso record
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Viking vs Tromso head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Tromso | Viking | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Tromso | Viking | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
| 2025-04-27 | Viking | Tromso | Eliteserien | 4-4 |
| 2024-09-01 | Tromso | Viking | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-05 | Viking | Tromso | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Tromso | Viking | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Viking | Tromso | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-22 | Viking | Tromso | Eliteserien | 3-4 |
| 2023-04-23 | Tromso | Viking | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-18 | Viking | Tromso | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Viking vs Tromso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.1%, draw 19.9%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.78 | 5.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.65 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.65 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.88 | 5.93 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 4.05 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .