Molde
vs
Fredrikstad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Molde
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.99 vs 1.28.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Molde is the favourite, not a value bet.
Molde vs Fredrikstad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Molde vs Fredrikstad
| Probability | Molde | Draw | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.4% | 15.8% | 12.9% |
| Market | 65.5% | 19.2% | 15.4% |
| Final | 66.9% | 18.3% | 14.7% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -0.9% | -0.6% |
Why Molde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.99 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (our 66.9% × 1.46 − 1).
Molde vs Fredrikstad match preview
Molde faces Fredrikstad in an Eliteserien clash, with Molde holding a 65% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Molde, with an expected goals tally of 2.99 for Molde compared to 1.28 for Fredrikstad. The model also indicates an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Molde has shown strength with three wins in their last five matches, while Fredrikstad has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. Historically, Fredrikstad has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both matches against Molde. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Molde and Fredrikstad team news
Molde news
- E. Hestad — leg injury
- H. Stenevik — injury
- M. Kikkenborg — achilles tendon injury
- S. Diop — inactive
- S. Hansen — injury
- V. Hoff — knee injury
Fredrikstad news
- D. Eid — yellow cards
- J. Nysveen — injury
- S. Kvile — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Molde and Fredrikstad expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.27
Molde and Fredrikstad attack and defence ratings
Molde
Fredrikstad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Molde vs Fredrikstad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 66.9% | 1.49 | +1.5% | 1.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 66.9% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| Fredrikstad | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 52.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 28.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.0% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 6.2% |
Molde vs Fredrikstad stats
Molde and Fredrikstad recent form
| Molde |
WDLWWW |
| Fredrikstad |
LDDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Molde and Fredrikstad season so far
Molde record
- They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fredrikstad record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Molde vs Fredrikstad head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Molde | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-12 | Fredrikstad | Molde | Eliteserien | 4-2 |
| 2024-12-07 | Fredrikstad | Molde | NM Cupen | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Molde | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 6-1 |
| 2024-07-13 | Fredrikstad | Molde | Eliteserien | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Molde vs Fredrikstad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.3%, draw 19.3%, away 15.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.98 | 6.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.85 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 5.19 | 7.02 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 4.24 | 5.22 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .