Lillestrom
vs
Brann
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lillestrom
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lillestrom is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lillestrom vs Brann overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lillestrom vs Brann
| Probability | Lillestrom | Draw | Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.1% | 25.1% | 39.8% |
| Market | 41.1% | 24.7% | 34.2% |
| Final | 39.6% | 24.8% | 35.6% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +0.1% | +1.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.35 − 1).
Lillestrom vs Brann match preview
Lillestrom faces Brann in an Eliteserien matchup with Lillestrom holding a 40% probability of winning, while Brann stands at 33%. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Lillestrom, with a 9% chance of this outcome. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, as the probability of both teams scoring is at 59%, and there is a 55% chance that over 2.5 goals will be scored in the match.
In terms of recent form, Lillestrom has recorded two draws and three wins in their last six matches, while Brann has won three and lost three in their recent outings. The expected goals for Lillestrom are 1.53, compared to Brann's 1.36, indicating a slightly stronger offensive performance from Lillestrom leading into this fixture. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Lillestrom and Brann team news
Lillestrom news
- C. Jebara — injury
- E. B. Garnas — knee injury
Brann news
- J. Sorensen — yellow cards
- K. Kjartansson — knee injury
- N. Boakye — knee injury
- S. Opsahl — foot injury
- U. Mathisen — foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lillestrom and Brann expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Lillestrom and Brann attack and defence ratings
Lillestrom
Brann
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lillestrom vs Brann markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 39.6% | 2.53 | -1.5% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 39.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Brann | 35.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% |
| No | 34.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win | 17.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 64.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Lillestrom vs Brann stats
Lillestrom and Brann recent form
| Lillestrom |
LWDDWL |
| Brann |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lillestrom and Brann season so far
Lillestrom record
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brann record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lillestrom vs Brann head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Brann | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-09 | Brann | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-12 | Lillestrom | Brann | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2023-10-01 | Lillestrom | Brann | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2023-06-11 | Brann | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-20 | Brann | Lillestrom | NM Cupen | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-11 | Lillestrom | Brann | Eliteserien | 2-3 |
| 2021-06-30 | Brann | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2019-09-01 | Lillestrom | Brann | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lillestrom vs Brann odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 24.7%, away 34.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.90 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 3.43 | 2.57 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .