Lillestrom
vs
Real Sociedad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lillestrom
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
| Probability | Lillestrom | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.3% | 20.2% | 17.5% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 62.3% | 20.2% | 17.5% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Lillestrom
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad match preview
Lillestrom is set to face Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League on October 22, 2026. According to our model, Lillestrom holds a 62% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw stand at 20% and Real Sociedad at 17%. The expected goals for Lillestrom are 2.39, compared to 1.23 for Real Sociedad. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Lillestrom has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Real Sociedad has achieved four wins, one loss, and one draw in the same timeframe. Additionally, our model indicates a 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 65% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this forecast is B.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lillestrom and Real Sociedad expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.62
Lillestrom and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings
Lillestrom
Real Sociedad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 62.3% | 1.60 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win | 41.4% | 2.42 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 62.3% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Real Sociedad | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win | 41.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 37.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad stats
Lillestrom and Real Sociedad recent form
| Lillestrom |
WLLWWW |
| Real Sociedad |
WLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.