Sandefjord
vs
Lillestrom
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sandefjord
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom
| Probability | Sandefjord | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.6% | 21.5% | 15.9% |
| Market | 35.5% | 25.9% | 38.6% |
| Final | 42.3% | 24.8% | 33.0% |
| Edge | +27.1% | -4.4% | -22.8% |
Why Sandefjord
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.03.
- The market prices Sandefjord below the model: +27.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom match preview
Sandefjord faces Lillestrom in an Eliteserien clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Sandefjord's last six matches include three draws and two wins, while Lillestrom has recorded two wins and two losses in their last five outings. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with Sandefjord at 42%, Lillestrom at 33%, and a draw at 25%.
The expected goals indicate a strong offensive showing from Sandefjord, projected at 2.25 compared to Lillestrom’s 1.07. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Sandefjord, with a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Sandefjord and Lillestrom team news
Sandefjord news
- D. Koswal — knee injury
- F. Loftesnes-Bjune — thigh injury
- M. Melchior — knee injury
- N. Moller — ankle injury
- T. Borkeeiet — suspended
Lillestrom news
- C. Jebara — injury
- E. B. Garnas — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sandefjord and Lillestrom expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Sandefjord and Lillestrom attack and defence ratings
Sandefjord
Lillestrom
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sandefjord | 42.3% | 2.37 | +27.1% | 2.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sandefjord win | 40.4% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sandefjord | 42.3% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Lillestrom | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sandefjord win | 40.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 37.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom stats
Sandefjord and Lillestrom recent form
| Sandefjord |
DWWLDD |
| Lillestrom |
DDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sandefjord and Lillestrom season so far
Sandefjord record
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
Lillestrom record
- They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Lillestrom | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Lillestrom | Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-23 | Lillestrom | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 0-3 |
| 2024-04-21 | Sandefjord | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-16 | Lillestrom | Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-03 | Sandefjord | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-16 | Lillestrom | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 4-2 |
| 2023-01-27 | Lillestrom | Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Lillestrom | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 3-0 |
| 2022-05-21 | Sandefjord | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.5%, draw 25.9%, away 38.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.72 | 3.61 | 2.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.65 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.52 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.62 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.39 | 3.26 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .