Molde
vs
Start
Garuda Lions Prediction: Molde
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Molde vs Start overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Molde vs Start
| Probability | Molde | Draw | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.3% | 12.2% | 10.5% |
| Market | 70.9% | 16.8% | 12.3% |
| Final | 72.5% | 15.6% | 11.8% |
| Edge | +6.4% | -4.6% | -1.8% |
Why Molde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.70 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Molde below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Molde vs Start match preview
Molde is favored to win against Start with a 72% probability, while Start has a 12% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-1 in favor of Molde, with an 89% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Expected goals suggest Molde will generate 3.72, compared to Start's 1.48.
In terms of recent form, Molde has recorded a draw and four wins in their last six matches, while Start has two wins and four losses in the same timeframe. The last head-to-head encounter resulted in a draw, with no wins for either team. Despite the confidence grade being C, the statistical outlook heavily favors Molde in this matchup.
Molde and Start team news
Molde news
- E. Hestad — leg injury
- H. Stenevik — injury
- M. Kikkenborg — achilles tendon injury
- S. Diop — inactive
- S. Hansen — injury
- V. Hoff — knee injury
Start news
- F. Manojlovic — hand injury
- J. Husebo — foot injury
- K. Tonnesen — leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Molde and Start expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.19
Molde and Start attack and defence ratings
Molde
Start
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Molde vs Start markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 72.5% | 1.38 | +6.4% | 1.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 72.5% |
| Draw | 15.6% | |
| Start | 11.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 11.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.7% |
| No | 24.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 61.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.9% | |
| Loss | 22.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.0% |
| 4-1 | 6.5% | |
| 2-1 | 5.7% |
Molde vs Start stats
Molde and Start recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Molde and Start season so far
Molde record
- They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Start record
- They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Molde vs Start head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Start | Molde | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2020-08-05 | Molde | Start | Eliteserien | 5-0 |
| 2020-06-24 | Start | Molde | Eliteserien | 2-3 |
| 2018-10-29 | Start | Molde | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
| 2018-05-27 | Molde | Start | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2016-07-17 | Molde | Start | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2016-04-10 | Start | Molde | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Molde vs Start odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.8%, draw 17.0%, away 12.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 5.68 | 7.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.25 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.75 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.40 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.32 | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 5.50 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.32 | 5.73 | 7.59 |
| SBO | 1.29 | 4.94 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .