Viking
vs
Fredrikstad
3 – 2 Full time
Viking vs Fredrikstad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Viking vs Fredrikstad
| Probability | Viking | Draw | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.3% | 23.3% | 18.4% |
| Market | 74.1% | 15.4% | 10.4% |
| Final | 70.2% | 17.4% | 12.4% |
| Edge | -15.9% | +7.8% | +8.0% |
Why Viking
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Viking and Fredrikstad expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Viking and Fredrikstad attack and defence ratings
Viking
Fredrikstad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Viking vs Fredrikstad: result vs prediction
Viking 3 – 2 Fredrikstad
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Viking vs Fredrikstad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viking | 70.2% | 1.42 | -15.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viking | 70.2% |
| Draw | 17.4% | |
| Fredrikstad | 12.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Viking win | 35.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 42.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
Viking vs Fredrikstad stats
Viking and Fredrikstad recent form
| Viking |
DWWWWL |
| Fredrikstad |
DDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Viking and Fredrikstad going into this match
Viking record
- They have won 17 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fredrikstad record
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Viking vs Fredrikstad head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Fredrikstad | Viking | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Fredrikstad | Viking | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Viking | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Viking | Fredrikstad | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-22 | Fredrikstad | Viking | Eliteserien | 3-2 |
| 2024-04-21 | Viking | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-03 | Viking | Fredrikstad | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2023-06-07 | Fredrikstad | Viking | NM Cupen | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Viking vs Fredrikstad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.0%, draw 15.5%, away 10.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 6.38 | 9.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.28 | 6.40 | 8.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.25 | 6.10 | 9.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27 | 6.53 | 8.95 |
| SBO | 1.24 | 5.13 | 7.05 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.80 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .