Fredrikstad
vs
Tromso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fredrikstad
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Fredrikstad vs Tromso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fredrikstad vs Tromso
| Probability | Fredrikstad | Draw | Tromso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.3% | 23.0% | 20.6% |
| Market | 33.6% | 27.6% | 38.8% |
| Final | 39.3% | 26.5% | 34.2% |
| Edge | +22.7% | -4.6% | -18.1% |
Why Fredrikstad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fredrikstad below the model: +22.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso match preview
Fredrikstad will host Tromso in an Eliteserien clash on October 11, 2026. The model gives Fredrikstad a 39% chance of winning, while Tromso has a 35% probability, and a draw stands at 26%. The expected goals suggest a strong attacking performance from Fredrikstad with 2.05 compared to Tromso's 1.19, indicating a potential scoreline of 2-1, which has a 10% likelihood.
Recent form shows Fredrikstad with two wins in their last three matches, while Tromso has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings. In their last three encounters, Fredrikstad has yet to secure a win against Tromso, who has two victories and one draw. The probabilities indicate a competitive matchup, with over 2.5 goals expected at 63% and both teams likely to score at 62%.
Fredrikstad and Tromso team news
Fredrikstad news
- F. Ghebreyohannes — yellow cards
- I. Amundsen — suspended
- J. Nysveen — injury
- S. Kvile — knee injury
Tromso news
- C. Oyvann — injury
- D. Braut — hip injury
- M. Tonnessen — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fredrikstad and Tromso expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Fredrikstad and Tromso attack and defence ratings
Fredrikstad
Tromso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fredrikstad vs Tromso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fredrikstad | 39.3% | 2.54 | +22.7% | 2.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fredrikstad | 39.3% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Tromso | 34.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fredrikstad win | 34.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 43.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Fredrikstad vs Tromso stats
Fredrikstad and Tromso recent form
| Fredrikstad |
DWDLWW |
| Tromso |
WWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fredrikstad and Tromso season so far
Fredrikstad record
- They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tromso record
- They have won 10 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Tromso | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Tromso | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Fredrikstad | Tromso | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 27.6%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.86 | 3.43 | 2.47 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.46 |
| Marathonbet | 2.78 | 3.34 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.80 | 3.47 | 2.48 |
| SBO | 2.61 | 3.07 | 2.26 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .