KFUM Oslo
vs
Valerenga
Garuda Lions Prediction: KFUM Oslo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
| Probability | KFUM Oslo | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.2% | 20.8% | 26.0% |
| Market | 33.8% | 25.8% | 40.3% |
| Final | 38.7% | 24.6% | 36.8% |
| Edge | +19.4% | -5.1% | -14.3% |
Why KFUM Oslo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.67.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices KFUM Oslo below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga match preview
KFUM Oslo faces Valerenga in an intriguing Eliteserien clash on October 12, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, assigning KFUM Oslo a 39% chance of victory, while Valerenga stands at 37%, and a draw is estimated at 25%. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive display from KFUM Oslo with 2.39 goals compared to Valerenga's 1.67. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of KFUM Oslo, occurring with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows KFUM Oslo with three wins in their last six matches, while Valerenga has two wins in the same span. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is high at 77%, and both teams scoring is also probable at 74%. In their last three encounters, KFUM Oslo has yet to secure a win against Valerenga, with two draws and one loss.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KFUM Oslo and Valerenga expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.07
KFUM Oslo and Valerenga attack and defence ratings
KFUM Oslo
Valerenga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KFUM Oslo | 38.7% | 2.59 | +19.4% | 2.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KFUM Oslo | 38.7% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Valerenga | 36.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% |
| No | 25.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | KFUM Oslo win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga stats
KFUM Oslo and Valerenga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KFUM Oslo and Valerenga season so far
KFUM Oslo record
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 20 matches.
Valerenga record
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 20 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Valerenga | KFUM Oslo | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Valerenga | KFUM Oslo | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-26 | KFUM Oslo | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.8%, draw 25.8%, away 40.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.70 | 2.37 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.60 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.33 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.60 | 2.31 |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.75 | 2.33 |
| SBO | 2.59 | 3.29 | 2.17 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .