Real Sociedad
vs
Levante
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Sociedad
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.61.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Real Sociedad is the favourite, not a value bet.
Real Sociedad vs Levante overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Sociedad vs Levante
| Probability | Real Sociedad | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.5% | 18.3% | 18.1% |
| Market | 59.4% | 21.6% | 19.0% |
| Final | 60.4% | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| Edge | +1.0% | -0.8% | -0.2% |
Why Real Sociedad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.9% per unit staked (our 60.4% × 1.67 − 1).
Real Sociedad vs Levante match preview
Real Sociedad is favored to win against Levante with a 55% probability, while the chances of a draw stand at 23% and Levante at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Real Sociedad, with an 8% likelihood. The expected goals are 2.25 for Real Sociedad and 1.65 for Levante, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Real Sociedad has recorded a mix of results with two wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Levante has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games. The head-to-head record shows Real Sociedad with one win and one draw against Levante in their last two encounters, indicating a slight historical advantage for the home side.
Real Sociedad and Levante team news
Real Sociedad news
- A. Odriozola — knee injury
- J. Aramburu — leg injury
- L. Beitia — ankle injury
- Y. Herrera — calf injury
Levante news
- A. Primo — shoulder injury
- Dela — injury
- E. Bardeli — muscle injury
- H. Sotelo — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Sociedad and Levante expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.39
Real Sociedad and Levante attack and defence ratings
Real Sociedad
Levante
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Sociedad vs Levante markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 60.4% | 1.65 | +1.0% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 60.4% |
| Draw | 20.8% | |
| Levante | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.7% |
| No | 23.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win | 45.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 36.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.4% |
| 3-1 | 7.2% | |
| 1-1 | 6.1% |
Real Sociedad vs Levante stats
Real Sociedad and Levante recent form
| Real Sociedad |
WWDWWL |
| Levante |
WDDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Sociedad and Levante season so far
Real Sociedad record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levante record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad vs Levante head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Real Sociedad | Levante | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Levante | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Sociedad vs Levante odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.1%, draw 21.9%, away 19.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 4.41 | 5.23 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.57 | 5.24 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.63 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .