Athletic Club
vs
Getafe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Athletic Club
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Athletic Club is the favourite, not a value bet.
Athletic Club vs Getafe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Getafe
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.7% | 20.7% | 12.6% |
| Market | 60.7% | 24.0% | 15.3% |
| Final | 62.2% | 23.1% | 14.7% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -0.8% | -0.7% |
Why Athletic Club
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.2% per unit staked (our 62.2% × 1.66 − 1).
Athletic Club vs Getafe match preview
Athletic Club enters this match against Getafe with a strong probability of winning at 62%, while the draw stands at 23% and Getafe at 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Athletic Club's expected goals are 2.31 compared to Getafe's 1.03, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home team.
In terms of recent form, Athletic Club has recorded a mixed bag of results with L-D-D-D-W-W, while Getafe's recent performances include L-D-D-L-W-L. The head-to-head record over the last six matches shows parity, with both teams securing two wins and two draws each. Our model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 60%.
Athletic Club and Getafe team news
Athletic Club news
- A. Laporte — suspended
- G. Guruzeta — knee injury
- O. Sancet — muscle injury
- U. Egiluz — knee injury
Getafe news
- C. Uche — knee injury
- Djene — suspended
- E. Unal — ankle injury
- Juanmi — knee injury
- O. Mangala — muscle injury
- Z. Romero — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Athletic Club and Getafe expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Athletic Club and Getafe attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Getafe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Getafe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 62.2% | 1.61 | +1.5% | 1.66 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 46.2% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 62.2% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Getafe | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.1% |
| No | 39.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 46.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 33.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
Athletic Club vs Getafe stats
Athletic Club and Getafe recent form
| Athletic Club |
LDDDWW |
| Getafe |
LDDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club and Getafe season so far
Athletic Club record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Getafe record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Athletic Club vs Getafe head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Getafe | Athletic Club | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Athletic Club | Getafe | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Getafe | Athletic Club | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-15 | Athletic Club | Getafe | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-03 | Getafe | Athletic Club | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2023-09-27 | Athletic Club | Getafe | La Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Getafe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.4%, draw 24.2%, away 15.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.11 | 6.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.85 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 3.95 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.00 | 6.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 4.15 | 5.93 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.34 | 5.22 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| winamax_de | 1.66 | 3.55 | 4.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .