Rayo Vallecano
vs
Elche
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rayo Vallecano
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
| Probability | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Elche |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 26.6% | 20.7% |
| Market | 53.7% | 25.1% | 21.3% |
| Final | 53.4% | 25.5% | 21.1% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +1.6% | -0.6% |
Why Rayo Vallecano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche match preview
Rayo Vallecano is favored to win against Elche with a 53% probability, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 25% and Elche at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability. Rayo Vallecano is expected to achieve 1.79 expected goals, compared to Elche's 1.14. Additionally, there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Rayo Vallecano has recorded a sequence of D-W-L-W-L-D, while Elche's recent matches show D-W-L-D-L-L. The last two encounters between the teams resulted in one win for each side, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The confidence grade for this forecast is A, suggesting a strong level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rayo Vallecano and Elche expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Rayo Vallecano and Elche attack and defence ratings
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 53.4% | 1.87 | -1.0% | 1.81 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 53.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Elche | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche stats
Rayo Vallecano and Elche recent form
| Rayo Vallecano |
DWLWLD |
| Elche |
DWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rayo Vallecano and Elche season so far
Rayo Vallecano record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Elche record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Rayo Vallecano | Elche | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Elche | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.8%, draw 24.8%, away 21.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.94 | 4.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.79 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.84 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.81 | 4.46 |
| SBO | 1.69 | 3.42 | 4.07 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| winamax_de | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .