La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Rayo Vallecano
vs
Elche
0 – 3 Full time
| 10′ | Javier Morcillo Rodrigálvarez | ||
| 23′ | Federico Redondo Solari | ||
| 30′ | Gonzalo Villar | ||
| 30′ | Federico Redondo Solari | ||
| 35′ | Pathé Ciss | ||
| 36′ | Fernando Niño Rodríguez | ||
| 45′ | Gonzalo VillarFacundo Buonanotte | ||
| 45′ | Jorge De FrutosGeorgiy Tsitaishvili | ||
| 45′ | Sergio CamelloAlexandre Zurawski | ||
| 54′ | Adrià Pedrosa | ||
| 60′ | Adrià PedrosaJozhua Vertrouwd | ||
| 60′ | Pedro DíazIsi Palazón | ||
| 61′ | Fernando Niño RodríguezAbiel Alessio Osorio | ||
| 68′ | Germán Valera | ||
| 72′ | Thomas LemarMartim Neto | ||
| 72′ | Lucas CepedaTete Morente | ||
| 76′ | Ivan BalliuGnangoro Bouare | ||
| 81′ | Álvaro García | ||
| 83′ | Federico Redondo SolariPedro Bigas |
Rayo Vallecano
56%
Draw
24%
Elche
19%
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 4 |
| 437 | Accurate passes | 319 |
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
| Probability | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Elche |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.1% | 23.9% | 15.0% |
| Market | 54.5% | 24.6% | 20.9% |
| Final | 56.2% | 24.4% | 19.4% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -0.2% | -1.5% |
Why Rayo Vallecano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
6%
Rayo Vallecano and Elche expected goals
Rayo Vallecano
2.01
Elche
0.99
Total expected goals: 3.00
Rayo Vallecano and Elche attack and defence ratings
Rayo Vallecano
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Elche
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
1.23 +23%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: result vs prediction
Rayo Vallecano 0 – 3 Elche
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 56.2% | 1.78 | +1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 56.2% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Elche | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win | 39.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 38.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche stats
Rayo Vallecano and Elche recent form
| Rayo Vallecano |
DDWLWL |
| Elche |
DDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rayo Vallecano and Elche going into this match
Rayo Vallecano record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Elche record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Rayo Vallecano wins
2Draws
4Elche wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Rayo Vallecano | Elche | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Elche | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 4-0 |
| 2023-04-29 | Elche | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 4-0 |
| 2022-10-03 | Rayo Vallecano | Elche | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-02-18 | Elche | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-17 | Rayo Vallecano | Elche | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2021-01-16 | Rayo Vallecano | Elche | Copa del Rey | 2-0 |
| 2020-03-08 | Rayo Vallecano | Elche | Segunda División | 2-3 |
| 2019-10-05 | Elche | Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2017-01-21 | Rayo Vallecano | Elche | Segunda División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.5%, draw 24.8%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.94 | 4.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.77 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.84 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.91 | 4.63 |
| SBO | 1.75 | 3.31 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| winamax_de | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.76 ▲ +0.08
X
3.90 ▲ +0.05
2
4.60 ▲ +0.30
26 snapshots recorded, from .