Getafe
vs
Rayo Vallecano
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rayo Vallecano
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
| Probability | Getafe | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 31.9% | 29.4% |
| Market | 32.2% | 31.8% | 35.9% |
| Final | 33.8% | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| Edge | +6.5% | +0.0% | -6.5% |
Why Rayo Vallecano
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano match preview
Getafe faces Rayo Vallecano in a La Liga matchup with both teams having a 34% probability of winning, while a draw is slightly less likely at 32%. The expected goals for Getafe stand at 1.29, while Rayo Vallecano is projected at 1.19. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Getafe, occurring with a 9% probability.
Recent form shows Getafe with a record of L-W-L-D-D-L, while Rayo Vallecano has D-W-L-W-L-D. In their last six encounters, Getafe has not secured a win, recording 0 victories, 3 draws, and 3 losses against Rayo Vallecano. Both teams have a 54% chance of scoring, and there is a 47% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano team news
Getafe news
- C. Uche — knee injury
- E. Unal — muscle injury
- I. Azon — injury
- Juanmi — knee injury
- O. Mangala — muscle injury
- Z. Romero — injury
Rayo Vallecano news
- A. Batalla — broken calfbone
- A. Ratiu — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano attack and defence ratings
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Before and after this match
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 34.3% | 2.91 | -6.5% | 2.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 33.8% |
| Draw | 31.8% | |
| Rayo Vallecano | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% |
| No | 46.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win | 13.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.4% | |
| Loss | 70.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 15.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.6% |
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano stats
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano recent form
| Getafe |
DLWLDD |
| Rayo Vallecano |
DWLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano season so far
Getafe record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Rayo Vallecano record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-02 | Rayo Vallecano | Getafe | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-02 | Rayo Vallecano | Getafe | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-24 | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-13 | Rayo Vallecano | Getafe | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-02 | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 31.7%, away 35.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.99 | 3.16 | 2.74 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.05 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.05 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.91 | 3.08 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 3.05 | 2.97 | 2.72 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 2.80 | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.62 |
| pinnacle | 2.71 | 3.10 | 2.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
29 snapshots recorded, from .