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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 9

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

0 – 1 Full time

22′Morten Hjulmand
43′Lee Kang-In
45′Ademola LookmanJulián Álvarez
45′Daniel Martinez MorenoAlejandro Grimaldo
55′Pablo Barrios RivasMarcos Llorente
62′Lee Kang-InAlejandro Baena Rodríguez
64′Vanja DrkusicUnai Núñez
66′Cristian Romero
67′Cristian RomeroRodrigo Mendoza
68′Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
73′Eduardo Expósito JaénÁlex Calatrava Torrado
73′Francisco Javier Hernandez CoarasaGabriel Moscardo
79′Rodrigo Mendoza
81′Roger Hinojo
82′Bryan ZaragozaJavi Puado
82′Roberto Fernández JaénMarcos Fernández
87′Unai Núñez
89′Alejandro Baena Rodríguez

RCDE Stadium, CornellaReferee: Alejandro Hernandez

Espanyol 23%
Draw 25%
Atletico Madrid 52%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 19
2 Shots on target 6
29 Possession % 71
4 Corners 12
10 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 4
5 Saves 2
196 Accurate passes 600

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEspanyolDrawAtletico Madrid
Model32.3%29.3%38.4%
Market19.8%23.9%56.3%
Final23.0%25.2%51.8%
Edge+12.5%+5.4%-17.8%

Confidence: High

Why Atletico Madrid

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Espanyol ↓ / Atletico Madri → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 14% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 8%

Espanyol and Atletico Madrid expected goals

Espanyol 1.32
Atletico Madrid 1.52

Total expected goals: 2.84

Espanyol and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings

Espanyol

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Atletico Madrid

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid: result vs prediction

Espanyol 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Madrid 51.8% 1.93 -17.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.7% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.0% 1.64 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.6% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Espanyol23.0%
Draw25.2%
Atletico Madrid51.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%
Both teams to scoreYes61.0%
No39.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.2%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)77.0%
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win20.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss61.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
1-28.8%
2-18.0%

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid stats

Espanyol and Atletico Madrid recent form

newest first
Espanyol DLLWDL
Atletico Madrid WWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Espanyol and Atletico Madrid going into this match

league record before kick-off

Espanyol record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Madrid record

  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Espanyol wins 5Draws 4Atletico Madrid wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-21Atletico MadridEspanyolLa Liga4-2
2025-08-17EspanyolAtletico MadridLa Liga2-1
2025-03-29EspanyolAtletico MadridLa Liga1-1
2024-08-28Atletico MadridEspanyolLa Liga0-0
2023-05-24EspanyolAtletico MadridLa Liga3-3
2022-11-06Atletico MadridEspanyolLa Liga1-1
2022-04-17Atletico MadridEspanyolLa Liga2-1
2021-09-12EspanyolAtletico MadridLa Liga1-2
2020-03-01EspanyolAtletico MadridLa Liga1-1
2019-11-10Atletico MadridEspanyolLa Liga3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.0%, draw 24.0%, away 55.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.98 4.12 1.75
Bet365 4.75 4.00 1.73
BetVictor 4.80 4.00 1.67
Betano 4.80 3.80 1.72
Betfair 5.00 4.00 1.67
Dafabet 4.70 3.90 1.74
Marathonbet 4.90 4.05 1.72
Pinnacle 5.00 4.12 1.68
SBO 4.15 3.40 1.69
William Hill 4.50 3.80 1.70
pinnacle 4.14 3.70 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.85 ▲ +0.71
X 4.03 ▲ +0.33
2 1.71 ▼ -0.14

29 snapshots recorded, from .